NORTH TEXAS (CBS 11 STORM TEAM) – Most of North Texas is under a Wind Advisory until 7 p.m. South winds between 20-30 mph are being reported, with gusts up to 40 mph.
Warm, humid air surged back into North Texas over the past 24 hours and along with it came a cloud deck overnight and extremely mild, low temperatures.
Filtered sunshine through the clouds has been the story versus the dark, drizzled landscape of yesterday and breaks from the clouds are expected as temperatures heat to near 90 degrees, with strong south winds.
The active storm pattern continues today thanks to the dry line in West Texas. It is expected to push eastward toward North Texas this afternoon and evening. One forecast solution keeps the dry line’s position west of a Wichita Falls to Abilene line. If that is the case, storms will develop far enough west that they will die out before making it into much of North Texas, affecting areas west and northwest of Metroplex.
But, today our in-house computer model pushes the dry line farther east. In this scenario, storm initiation would occur closer to the Metroplex and storms would become severe over, or very near, the Metroplex northward to the Red River – basically a line from Gainesville, to Denton, to Fort Worth, to Granbury.
Right now, we’re calling for a 20 to 30-percent chance for storms, mainly west and northwest. The storms that fire will likely become severe and the time between storm initiation and becoming severe will be very quick. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern along with lightning and localized heavy rainfall.
The general window to watch for storms is between 5 p.m. and Midnight. I think a more refined window would be between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m.
For Easter weekend, both Saturday and Sunday should be carbon copies of each other. Both mornings will be mostly cloudy, breezy. Expect temperatures to be mild, with lows in the 70s and afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s.
The dry line will be a key player for both days in the late afternoon and evening. Storms will fire to the northwest of the Metroplex and stand a decent chance of becoming severe. Again, large hail, damaging winds and a small tornado threat will exist.