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Threat of Severe Weather on Wednesday & Thursday

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
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SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND ON THURSDAY…

A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will be affecting the area this evening.  There may be a couple of stronger storms that produce some small hail, but that will likely be very limited.  Most areas will likely just see a few raindrops and nothing very heavy this evening and tonight. 

TOMORROW’S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP…

A strong upper level low will be moving into the Central Plains tomorrow.  This will send a negative tilted trough over Texas and Oklahoma.  It is called negative tilted because it will be oriented from northwest to southeast.  This position in the upper level means that it has very strong upward motion in the atmosphere.  The air is ripping apart in the upper levels and air at the surface rushes up to fill that void.

There will also be a dryline that will stall in our western counties tomorrow.  I do expect cloudy skies to start the morning with a few scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms during the morning hours.  These could produce some hail. 

In the afternoon, as the upper level energy moves right over are area, widespread severe weather appears more likely.  Looking at the low level wind field, supercells will be possible with a tornado threat.  The threat for severe weather will include all of North Texas.  These storms will linger into the evening and even thru the early overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

A couple of factors may limit the severe threat tomorrow.  We will see cloudy skies thru most of the day.  This will limit the amount of heating that occurs because temperatures will only warm into the low 80s.  The most vigorous upper level disturbance will be across western Oklahoma and Kansas.  This could be where the greatest tornado threat lies.  Storms that develop in Central Texas tomorrow morning, could disrupt the flow of moisture into North Texas tomorrow afternoon.  That could limit the growth ability of storms here in the afternoon.  All of these things will have to be watched as they will impact our severe weather chances.  But keep in mind that, severe weather appears a possibility tomorrow.

THURSDAY…

More storms will be possible on Thursday for area mainly from Dallas to the east and southeast.  Some of these storms will once again be severe.  This upper level disturbance is quite strong and another piece of energy will rotate around that upper level low and move over Texas.  Behind the rain, our western counties will warm into the upper 80s.  it will likely be around 83 to 85 degrees in Dallas and Fort Worth on Thursday. 

GREAT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND…

Are you tired of the humidity?  We get a really nice stretch of weather starting Friday thru the weekend.  The humidity will drop off on Friday.  There still could be a few thunderstorms Thursday night into the predawn hours on Friday.  But the day of Friday should be dry with a high of 80 degrees.

The weekend will feature temperatures starting in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s.  There will be the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but that is highly uncertain at this point.  Nice cooler weather will likely continue thru the middle of next week.

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