NORTH TEXAS (CBS 11 Storm Team) – Another round of storms is on tap for today for North Texas, as yet another upper level disturbance pushes in from the southwest. The disturbance is on top of the dry line and cold front that is currently in West Texas and the Panhandle.
The upper level disturbance already produced a large complex of storms along the Rio Grande Valley. This complex has expanded northward and is serving as the trigger point for the storms now in the southwestern parts of North Texas.
The thinking is these storms should weaken as they push farther into the North Texas. Therefore, the greater probability for severe weather exists for the southern parts of North Texas, from Stephenville to Waxahachie, to Canton and southward.
The initial threat from the storms will be large hail, but as the disturbance fills in the threat will shift to damaging winds.
Individual storms may also develop to the east of the developing storm line. These storms will initially present a large hail threat, then shift to a wind threat as they grow and become a larger complex of storms southeast of the Metroplex.
Into the afternoon, the severe weather threat may change from our initial forecasts. If the large complex of storms to our south remains healthy and active, it will push far enough east to effectively cut off storm development for areas from the Metroplex northward to the Red River, including most of eastern parts of North Texas. As I type this update, I’m beginning to buy more into this possibility.
However, the dry line pushing in from our west will still serve as a trigger point for storms from the Metroplex eastward and will have to be monitored closely throughout the day by the CBS 11 Storm Team to see how effective the dry line will be this afternoon.
As for weather condition Thursday evening and overnight, more storms are possible from the Metroplex eastward, with damaging winds and large hail as the dry line and cold front approach from the west.
The greatest severe weather threat is for eastern parts of North Texas. Again with the possibility of getting cut off by the storm complex to our south, the dry line could fail to produce storms and the Metroplex, along with most of North Texas, will be quiet during the evening hours. That scenario would have only the eastern part of North Texas worrying about a small storm threat after midnight as cold front comes in.
Behind this front is cooler, drier air that will bring a much more quiet weekend, with morning temperatures in the 50s and afternoon highs in the 70s under sunny skies.