There is a pattern shift that will take shape by the end of the week into the weekend, which will bring us some relief from the 100s and possibly some rain chances too!  Our big upper level high that has dominated the southern Plains all summer will move toward the southeastern part of the country.  This will be something that hasn’t happened this summer.  This will allow an upper level disturbance to come out of the Gulf of Mexico and move into Texas.  This will help draw rich Gulf moisture into North Texas and allow for some rain chances starting Friday.  This moisture will also result in cloud cover especially in the morning hours.  That will help lower temperatures into the 90s.  It will still be hot, and the humidity level will be high; but with cloud cover and some rain chances around, it will be a welcomed sight to most.

This upper level disturbance coming out of the Gulf will help set the stage in  the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development by this weekend.  There is a large surge of moisture in the Caribbean and a tropical wave that should be arriving in the Gulf this weekend.  It is possible there could be development of a tropical system in the Gulf.  It is way too early to say with any degree of certainty that something will form, but when you look at the upper level pattern, it at least opens up the possibility for something to happen.

I am just full of good news on this Monday.  The models are also suggesting that a cold front will get here Sunday or Monday of next week.  This is the most aggressive the models have been all summer about pushing a front this far south.  And given the pattern shift mentioned above, plus the waning daylight this has a realistic chance of happening.  So for Friday, Saturday and Sunday I will put rain chances at 30% each day with eastern sections of North Texas the favored area of rain and highs each day will be in the mid 90s.  Monday though behind the cold front temps may only make it into the low 90s and drier air pushing into the area.

After a nice break this morning with some cloud cover, we will resume the heat tomorrow thru Thursday with high temperatures between 100 and 104 the next few days.  But then the pattern changes by the weekend.

Today was day number 63 of 100 degree weather this year.  We may fall short of the all-time record of 69 set in 1980.  But the upper level ridge is expected to build back over top of North Texas by the middle of next week.  But it won’t likely be as strong as it has been.  So even have after this slight cool down coming this weekend and early next week, we still could tack on a few 100 degree days in the first couple weeks of September.

Larry Mowry
CBS 11 Chief Meteorologist