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Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Larry joined the CBS 11 Storm Team in January 2008 from CBS affil...
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POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY…

Confidence is growing on a widespread rain event for us on Sunday with the potential for severe weather.  A big upper level storm system that is now impacting California will slowly move across the 4-corners area the next couple of days before moving into the Plains this weekend.  This strong upper level low will provide a very unstable atmosphere which will lead to severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains.

SEVERE WEATHER STAYS WEST OF US NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…

A dryline and cold front will stay well west of DFW tonight and tomorrow.  Along the dryline and front is where the greatest threat of severe weather will be located TONIGHT and TOMORROW.  Here is a look at where the severe weather threat is highest tonight.  Along with where the dryline and cold front are located as of 4pm Thursday.

tx temp plot1 Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

ntx rain chances Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

TOMORROW…

The dryline and cold front will shift a little east but still be well west of the DFW area.  So the threat of severe weather will remain well to our N & W.  Just like today there may be a few very isolated showers that bubble up in the morning and afternoon but nothing widespread.

ntx rain chancesfri Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

SATURDAY…

Severe weather looks likely across much of Oklahoma and for area N & W of the metroplex.  The CAP will be pretty strong here over Dallas/Fort Worth so storms don’t appear likely for us.  But in Oklahoma where the CAP will be weaker, severe storms appear likely with an enhanced threat for Tornadoes.  We will have to watch areas from Mineral Wells to Gainesville for storms to possible move into those areas later in the evening.

ntx rain chancessat Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

SUNDAY…

This is the day where all of North Texas has the greatest threat of severe weather and heavy rain.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be arriving during the late morning hours for western counties and then spreading into the metroplex during the day.   Timing will need to be fine-tuned, but it looks like the daytime hours for the DFW area is when the greatest threat of storms will be.  There will be the potential for severe weather with hail, high winds, flash flooding and a tornado potential.  At this point it doesn’t look like it will be like last Tuesday when we saw widespread tornadoes, but we won’t know for sure what the tornado threat will be like until that day when we can analysis the small features of the atmosphere.  Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky and on the TV for potential severe weather on Sunday.  You can always get the radar too at www.cbsdfw.com  RADAR HERE

ntx rain chancessun Severe Weather Outlook For This Weekend

7-day FORECAST

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