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Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
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UPDATE AT 845PM

STORM ARRIVAL TIME… Some storms will probably be moving into the Metroplex, after 1030pm.  Around DFW at 11pm.  Not everyone will see storms at that time but areas in Denton and Collin County will be the favored areas for storms between now 11pm.

STORMS APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS…

Below is a radar of the southern Plains.  Of note is the large complex of storms along the Kansas and Oklahoma border that has winds above 70 mph with it.  This will continue to move S and SE thru the night.  This complex of storms is what we would face in the morning hours of Thursday.

radar830pm Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

Of immediate concern are the supercell thunderstorms that our just to our North and West along the Red River.  Storms have moved into Montague County moving toward Gainesville.  This storm is moving due east.  However two supercell thunderstorms that have a history of producing tornadoes and baseball size hail are diving southeast.  These storms will impact Young, Stephens and Palo Pinto County from now until 11pm.  Below is a map showing these storms mentioned above.  These supercells storms near Seymour and Guthrie do have the potential to turn back more to the east if they lose some of their rotation.  A tightly wound up supercell will tend to move to the right of the prevailing wind.  Once it lessons its rotation it will go back to the prevailing wind which would push it eastward.

radar8301a Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

Also of note are the numerous outflow boundaries that are left over from todays and last night’s storms.  These could be focus points for new development as we go into the night.

THREATS:

Large hail and damaging winds remain our greatest concern.  The tornado threat for the DFW area is low, but not zero.  Especially with all these boundaries laying around, you can never know how that would impact a storm.

***PREVIOUS POST BELOW***

UPDATE at 630pm – Here’s an update on storm timeline for tonight across North Texas.  STORM TIMELINE

SEVERE STORM CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER ALL IN NEXT 24 HOURS…

Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain draped over the same area that has seen repeated storms thru the day today.  Roughly from Pilot Point and Aubrey in Denton Co – thru Frisco and Plano in Collin Co – down to NE Dallas CO into Rockwall Co.  They are still capable of producing gusty winds and some hail.  These will continue to linger for the next couple of hours.

ATTENTION TURNS OUT WEST…

To our west is where the dryline has set up from Childress down to west of Abilene in West Texas.  Here are the temps as of 2pm.

n tx wide temp plot1 Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

Along the dryline is where storms will initiate between about 4pm and 6pm.  These storms will be severe and move thru NW Texas and Western Oklahoma this evening.  Large hail, tornadoes and high winds all likely in this area along dryline into western OK.  This area is under a Moderate Risk of severe weather today.

severe risk2 Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

These storms that develop along the dryline will move East/Southeast this evening and make a run for the DFW metroplex later tonight.  Here is a nice highlighted map of storm imitation from the National Weather Service.

image4 Severe Storms & Cooler Weather In Forecast

TIMING OF STORMS IN METROPLEX…

The preliminary time of arrival for storms in the metroplex looks to be between 8pm and Midnight.  This is dependent on what time they develop along the dryline.  If they are slow to develop it will be later, but if sooner than may arrive sooner.  But Late evening into the early overnight hours is when we will have the greatest threat for severe weather in North Texas.  Large hail, winds 60 mph + and even a tornado threat will be with us.  The tornado threat appears to be highest along the Red River in Oklahoma.

COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING…

After the storms tonight, the actual cold front will arrive between 5am and 7am in the DFW area.  More showers and storms will likely accompany the front first thing tomorrow morning.  These still could be severe with hail and high wind main threat.  Rain may linger thru the morning commute before drying out in the afternoon on Thursday.  Cooler, drier air settles in for Thursday afternoon and Friday.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 80s!  Friday morning will start with temps near 60 degrees!  That’ll feel cool.  Then highs on Friday only in the mid to low 80s.

BUT STAY WITH CBS 11 for updates throughout the evening, night and morning on potential severe weather.  I’ll be updating our Facebook page and my Twitter page thru the night.

FACEBOOK – https://www.facebook.com/CBSDFW

TWITTER – www.twitter.com/CBS11Larry

Larry

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