Today we again find storms developing in the heat of the day. Most of the activity has stayed well south of the metroplex but we are watching storms east and southeast of Dallas get organized into a line. This is how outflow boundaries can form ahead of the storms. Yesterday an outflow boundary moved through the metro area producing 50mph winds, knocking down a construction crane on UT Dallas campus and killing two workers.

Storms should move across our southern half till just past sundown. Storms over in Oklahoma will get into our Red River counties in the early evening. Severe chances remain low with these storms.

RAIN CHANCES PICK UP

The forecast calls for a weak front to move into north Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening helping trigger storms:

The storm chance jumps up to 40% for the second half of the day. Highs should reach into the low-90′s before the cloud cover and gust fronts (or actually rain) knocks the temperature down at DFW.

The front is still around on Tuesday and might get an extra boost with a mid-level disturbance coming over the front during the day. This could produce copious amount of rain, the atmosphere is extremely loaded with moisture. The risk of localized flooding could develop.

The storm chances on Tuesday go up to 50%. I’m counting on clouds and the rain to keep highs only in the upper 80′s. Temperatures will be in the mid-90′s just to the west of DFW so it’s a little bit of a long shot.

The front is across the south on Wednesday. Heavy rain could fall in our southeast corner that day. We’ll include a 30% chance of storms for north Texas with smaller chances for the metro area.

The front will spend more time to the southeast of the metoplex rather than overhead. You can see this is the forecast rainfall totals,  as much as 3″ could fall along the I-45 corridor in Navarro and Freestone counties and east.

Still, this is a welcome weather pattern. Just think about the first two weeks of July last year. The average high was 101° and DFW only got a trace of rain.