Reporting Larry Mowry
Filed underStorm Team Blog
3pm VIDEO UPDATE
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING…
There has been a large area of rain to our west thru most of the day. This has tried to make progress into parts of North Texas this afternoon but has had a tough time doing so. There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening for those areas mainly north and west of Fort Worth. I can’t completely rule out a stray shower or storm in the metroplex, but the likelihood is pretty low.
RAIN CHANCES GOING UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…
Friday will be similar to today with a mix of sun and clouds, muggy conditions and a small chance of showers and thunderstorms. I’ll put rain chances tomorrow at 30% with the favored time frame for rain being in the afternoon and evening.
Friday night into Saturday is when we will have our best chance of rain. A piece of energy that has broken off what was Hurricane Miriam in the Eastern Pacific is already traveling over northern Mexico. That will combine with an upper level disturbance moving into the Southern Plains and move over Texas Friday night into Saturday. Here’s how that looks graphically.
WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST…
It looks like the heaviest rain will be in Central and South Texas Friday and Saturday. We would likely see some showers and even isolated thunderstorms roll thru Friday night into Saturday. But what worries me about this setup is if storms get going to our south, they would eat up any moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico and shut off any rain chances for us. I have seen this happen many times. Rain chances look great for us, and then storms develop from Waco southward and suck up all the moisture leaving us dry. That is a possibility with the way the system is evolving. I do think though that we will see a least a few periods of rain Friday night into the day on Saturday. The duration of that rain will depend on how expansive the thunderstorm activity is to our south.
I do not expect any severe weather tonight, tomorrow or on Saturday. I can’t rule out a stronger thunderstorm, but severe weather doesn’t look likely.
The time frame with the greatest likelihood of widespread rain will be Saturday morning. Here is a look at rain chances over the next few days.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
TCU at SMU SATURDAY EVENING FORECAST
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, isolated showers and storms mainly north and west of DFW. Low of 73. S 5-10 mph
TOMORROW: Partly to mostly cloudy. 30% Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High of 88. S 5-10 mph
TOMORROW NIGHT: Cloudy, with showers and a few thunderstorms. 50% rain chance. Low of 66. NE 5-10 mph
SATURDAY: Cloudy, showers and storms likely. Rain chances 50% favoring the morning hours into the early afternoon for best rain chances. High 80. NE 5-10 mph
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, stray showers still possible. Rain Chances at 30%. Low of 65. NE 5-10 mph
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy, stray showers still possible in the morning. Rain chances at 20%. High of 84. NE 5-10 mph
MONDAY: Partly sunny and dry. Low of 64. High of 84.