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Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend – VIDEO UPDATE

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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3pm VIDEO UPDATE

RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING…

There has been a large area of rain to our west thru most of the day.  This has tried to make progress into parts of North Texas this afternoon but has had a tough time doing so.  There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening for those areas mainly north and west of Fort Worth.  I can’t completely rule out a stray shower or storm in the metroplex, but the likelihood is pretty low.

RAIN CHANCES GOING UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…

Friday will be similar to today with a mix of sun and clouds, muggy conditions and a small chance of showers and thunderstorms.  I’ll put rain chances tomorrow at 30% with the favored time frame for rain being in the afternoon and evening.

Friday night into Saturday is when we will have our best chance of rain.  A piece of energy that has broken off what was Hurricane Miriam in the Eastern Pacific is already traveling over northern Mexico.  That will combine with an upper level disturbance moving into the Southern Plains and move over Texas Friday night into Saturday.  Here’s how that looks graphically.

tx satrad master13 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

tx satrad master114 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST…

It looks like the heaviest rain will be in Central and South Texas Friday and Saturday.  We would likely see some showers and even isolated thunderstorms roll thru Friday night into Saturday.  But what worries me about this setup is if storms get going to our south, they would eat up any moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico and shut off any rain chances for us.  I have seen this happen many times.  Rain chances look great for us, and then storms develop from Waco southward and suck up all the moisture leaving us dry.  That is a possibility with the way the system is evolving.  I do think though that we will see a least a few periods of rain Friday night into the day on Saturday.  The duration of that rain will depend on how expansive the thunderstorm activity is to our south.

I do not expect any severe weather tonight, tomorrow or on Saturday.  I can’t rule out a stronger thunderstorm, but severe weather doesn’t look likely.

The time frame with the greatest likelihood of widespread rain will be Saturday morning.  Here is a look at rain chances over the next few days.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT

ntx rain chances33 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING

ntx rain chances9 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING

ntx rain chances14 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

SATURDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING

ntx rain chances113 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

TCU at SMU SATURDAY EVENING FORECAST

tcu at smu1 Latest on Rain Chances for North Texas this Weekend   VIDEO UPDATE

FORECAST:

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, isolated showers and storms mainly north and west of DFW.  Low of 73.  S 5-10 mph

TOMORROW:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  30% Chance of showers and thunderstorms.  High of 88.  S 5-10 mph

TOMORROW NIGHT:  Cloudy, with showers and a few thunderstorms.  50% rain chance.  Low of 66.  NE 5-10 mph

SATURDAY:  Cloudy, showers and storms likely.  Rain chances 50% favoring the morning hours into the early afternoon for best rain chances.  High 80.  NE 5-10 mph

SATURDAY NIGHT:  Cloudy, stray showers still possible.  Rain Chances at 30%.  Low of 65.  NE 5-10 mph

SUNDAY:  Partly cloudy, stray showers still possible in the morning.  Rain chances at 20%.  High of 84.  NE 5-10 mph

MONDAY:  Partly sunny and dry.  Low of 64.  High of 84.

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