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Cold Front: Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

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Our big weather story today is the cold front coming through the vast majority of North Texas dry.  The front should pass through the Metroplex around the noon hour with temperatures pushing close to 80 degrees south of the front in southern Dallas County and across the southern half of North Texas.  Temperatures for most of the Metroplex will top out in the low-to-mid-70s before the front then fall back to the 60s and eventually 50s for the evening drive home.  The winds will also pick up from the north behind the front with gusts to 25-30 mph.  Here’s how temperatures look at 1 PM today.

metro futurecast temps Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

 

 

Rain chances essentially miss the Metroplex, but a stray developing shower may clip eastern parts of Dallas County as it pushes eastward.  Isolated showers and storms will develop east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon after 3 PM and strengthen as they push farther east.   Eastern parts of the North Texas will be the most likely to see showers and/or storms:  Paris, Sulphur Springs, Athens, Palestine.  But, even these chances aren’t impressive at only 20-30 percent.  The window being roughly 4 PM to 8 PM.  Here’s the rain chances.

ntx rain chances2 Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

 

 

There is also a severe weather threat with the storms today, but it is most likely even east of North Texas.  The reason is that storms will likely develop into a squall line over the extreme eastern parts of North Texas, then press east and southeast.  Squall lines are known for strong damaging winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and hail.  Here’s the Storm Prediction Center’s SLIGHT RISK outlook for this afternoon and evening.  This slight risk area is farther east than previously thought as we identify better convergence of upper level energy and surface instability/moisture with the cold front.

severe risk2 Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

 

 

Cold air easily upstages the minimal rain chances.  Below is the forecast for tomorrow morning.  Much of North Texas including parts of the Metroplex will likely drop close to freezing or below.  This forecast takes into account skies at least partially clearing overnight.  However, a layer of post-frontal clouds will develop and possibly linger into the morning hours.  If this occurs, it will mean temperatures staying closer to the 40 degree mark versus the freeze mark.  Right now, I feel the forecast below is pretty good call especially for areas along the Red River and the west.

ntx futurecast temps2 Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

 

 

If we manage to dodge the freezing bullet Tuesday morning, we will certainly take the hit Wednesday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds.  I don’t think the south winds will kick in quick enough and strong enough to keep us from another freezing morning.  Here’s how lows shake out Wednesday morning.

ntx futurecast temps1 Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold

 

 

In our same Fall fashion where every cold snap has been a snap, this shot of cold will not last long.  Temperatures run above normal starting Wednesday afternoon and will push close to 80 degrees this weekend.  The small rain chances Thursday into Friday come from a cloudy sky that will bring only sprinkles or isolated light showers courtesy of south/southeast winds tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture.

ktvt 7day master am6 Cold Front:  Dodging Rain, Not The Cold