Reporting Larry Mowry
Filed underStorm Team Blog
It is the talk of the town. Will is snow on Monday morning? Just the mention of snow in the forecast and the message spreads like wildfire. It is one of the unique challenges I see as a TV Meteorologist. Four days in the future, I am forecasting a small chance of snow. Most people don’t hear the “small chance” and just here the word “snow”. And bam, everyone thinks it will snow on Monday. That is one of the perils of my job when it comes to forecasting snow. If I don’t mention the chance of snow and it does snow, people wonder why I didn’t see it. And if I mention the chance of snow, and no snow falls, people might believe I was over hyping the forecast.
And here in North Texas, snow forecasting comes with great uncertainty. Unlike other parts of the country, where you have a pretty good idea when it will snow… It takes all the right ingredients coming together at the right time to get snow to fall here.
We use our computer forecast models to help us look at those conditions and see if they are coming together. What I have seen over the past 24 hours with the models is the ingredients are on the table for flurries and light snow Monday morning, but the timing of all the variables has not been exactly perfect.
The variables to mention are timing of below freezing air, timing of upper level disturbance, and is there enough moisture in the atmosphere. For the most part, the models have shown below freezing air for Monday morning on a consistent basis. The timing of the upper level disturbance has varied though with some of the newer model updates this afternoon. They have slowed the disturbance down and pass it thru more midday Monday. If true, this would eliminate any snow chance for North Texas and maybe produce some light sprinkles. The last variable, is there enough moisture in the atmosphere, looks like just enough. There isn’t much moisture in the atmosphere, but it appears there is enough in the key levels of the atmosphere to create snow.
But again, it all comes to a timing issue. Will this happen Monday morning. At this point it really is only about a 20% to 30% chance of the conditions coming together at the right time to give us a snow chance Monday morning. Even if it did work out properly, the snow would be very light and not cause any traffic problems. I hope that point doesn’t get lost in my weather report this afternoon. So although there is a snow chance, it is low and even if it does snow, it won’t be a huge inconvenience. But it sure would be pretty to see and put us back in the Holiday spirit after being so warm recently.
I do know with 100% certainty that it will be cold Monday morning. Temperatures will be at or below freezing with north winds gusting to 20 mph. This will make it feel like it is in the Teens outside.
The cold air arrives on Sunday as the front comes thru during the midday hours. There is a small chance of light rain Sunday morning, and then a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Dallas during the early afternoon and evening. We probably won’t see much in the way of rain in Dallas/Fort Worth. We really could use some, but this front won’t bring very good rain chances.
Here’s a look at Rain Chances and where a Small Chance of snow will be as we go thru the weekend.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloud again with light patchy fog. Showers and light rain possible for areas south and east of Dallas. Low of 52. Vrb. winds 5-10 mph
TOMORROW: Morning clouds, than some sunshine. High of 72. S 5-15 mph
SUNDAY: Morning clouds, spotty light rain. Morning temps in the 60s. Cold front arrives Midday. Temps fall in afternoon thru the 50s. 30% chance of thunderstorms for areas east of Dallas. Wind increase out of the north 20-30 mph
MONDAY MORNING: Mostly cloudy, cold and windy. Small chance of light snow and snow flurries mainly N & W of DFW. Snow chance 20%. Low of 32. Feeling like the teens though with wind chills. North winds 20-30 mph
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy, cold and windy. High of 44. N 10-20 mph
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Hard Freeze. Low of 27 with some areas in the teens. Light North winds.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and cold. High of 47. Light North winds.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Low of 29. Light North winds.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, slightly warmer. High of 56. Breezy S 10-20 mph