A little bit of a chill this morning (33° at DFW) but it will turn into a nice afternoon with all this sunshine. The high today should reach into the mid-50′s , right around “normal” for this time of year. But as difficult as this is too believe, yesterday and today are the WARMEST days we’ve had since the WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS.

Monday will be just a little warmer, in the upper 50′s with clouds building in as we get into the afternoon. Then a very big storm swings across Texas from the Big Bend area and provides two days of rain and storms.

BIG RAIN AHEAD

We’ll watch this system swing in across the desert Southwest and dip down into southern Texas. It could brings some severe weather to our area Wednesday. We’ll have to get a little closer to more certain of the storm track but this storm could possible even produce tornadoes in our area.

Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver some really big rains. Big one-day rain events have been rare over the last seven months since we entered a dry period, we’ve had only four that produced over 1″ in a 24-hour period. The last one occurred was on Christmas Day:

The computer models continue to show impressive rainfall amounts for the event ahead. Below is one of the long range forecast models we look at, the European (this model not only show the heaviest rains it also shows the biggest storm threat). It suggests that as much as 3″ could fall over the two-day period:

We have a nice warm-up after this big rain. Highs will get above-normal for the first time this year.