By Jeff Ray

We have one more nice winter day to enjoy before a major storm system sweeps out of Mexico and into north Texas. 

Highs today reached to 57°, exactly one degree above the “normal” of 56°. That marks the first time since Dec.23rd we’ve had an “above normal” high; a streak that ran a total of 13 days. To put that in perspective that was the longest streak of “below normal” highs since February 2012, almost THREE YEARS ago.

Highs Monday will again reach into the upper 50’s. First we’ll start the morning around freezing with sunny skies. Clouds will race in from the west as the storm system that’s been in California over the last two days makes its turn towards us down while crossing the Sierra Madre in Mexico:

Calif.Storm Swing SE

This is a large and powerful upper level low, as it draws near it will create a major rain shield that will engulf a large portion of Texas. The heavier rain with embedded storms should start by Tuesday afternoon. We’ll could have some light rain in the overnight hours heading into Tuesday morning and up till then.

Large Swath of Rain

This rain will go on all the way until early Thursday morning. It appears now that the heaviest rain will be where the strongest storms are expected, east of the I-35 corridor and south of I-20:

Forecast Rain Totals

Right now the severe threat looks to show up on Wednesday across our southeast quarter. We are expecting damaging winds with localized flooding:

Severe Threat

There is some forecast model scenarios that suggest much stronger storms, even tornadoes. We’ll keep you informed as we draw closer to the event.

After these big rains we expect a few days of 60-degree weather. Then the next cold front hits us early Sunday. We could have another round of storms late Saturday as the front heads towards us. It’ll be only in the 40’s for a high on Sunday.