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Low Rain Chances Tonight, Mild Weekend, Cold Air Returns Next Week!

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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I think the catchy part of the above headline is the cold air returning next week!  It will be unseasonably cold for the first week of May.  And in fact record cold temperatures may be possible.  More on that below.  But let’s talk about rain and storm chances tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK

Severe Risk Day 1

North Texas is no longer in the slight risk for severe weather this evening and overnight.  In fact, it looks like we won’t see any strong to severe storms this evening or tonight.  The low that you see on the map above will track farther to the north than it looked yesterday.  This will keep all the strong to severe storms across Oklahoma tonight.

We may see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in North Texas especially north of DFW, but coverage on any of these storms will be very low, less than 30%.

SPOTTY RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

There will be spotty showers this evening and overnight.  Coverage won’t be high and heavy rain is not expected.

COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT

A cold front will slide thru DFW after midnight.  Along the front we will probably see a few showers and possibly and isolated thunderstorm.  No severe weather is expected with the front.  There also won’t be much cold air behind this cold front.

RAIN TIMING

FRIDAY 7PM – Isolated showers mainly NE of Dallas.  May see an isolated storm toward Paris and Clarksville.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA

SATURDAY 1am – Cold front moving into NW sections of North Texas.  Could see a few showers along the front.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA1

SATURDAY 4AM – Front moving into DFW.  Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front.  No severe weather expected.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA2

SATURDAY 7AM – Front will be moving east of Dallas.  Still a few spotty showers around especially for areas east of Dallas.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA3

SATURDAY 11AM – Front moves south and east into East Texas.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in far East Texas.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA4

SATURDAY 2PM – Where front stalls there will be the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.  Right now that looks to be south of Waco.  No rain threat for DFW at all tomorrow afternoon.  We will enjoy mild temperatures near 80 and some sunshine.

NTX FutureCast 12kmA5

COLD START TO MAY!

Now to the cold weather I mentioned above for the start of May!

On Wednesday, I highlighted how cold this April has been compared to past April’s.

There is a really good chance this May will end up with below average temperatures as well.  A very unusual shot of cold air coming as we start the month.

Here is what will happen.  A strong upper level trough shown below as an area of Low pressure in Canada…

500mb EnergyB

… will dive south and stall somewhere over the Mississippi Valley late next week around May 2 thru May 6.  See below.

500mb EnergyA

This will open up the door for cold Canadian air to flow southward and make it here to Texas.

Depending on cloud cover and just how cold this air is, we would be talking about record low temperatures!

500mb Energy

The all time coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of May is 34 degrees set on May 1, 1903.  We may not get that cold, but I do expect a few morning lows between May 2 and May 6 to possibly be in the 40s.  This would put us close to record lows early next week.  High temperatures may only be in the 60s during this period too.  Average high temperatures for the first week fo May are right at 80 degrees!  This would be really an amazing cold spell for us in May.  Stay Tuned!

Larry

@CBS11Larry