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How Cold April Could Mean Cool Summer In DFW

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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For the past few days, I’ve been pouring over the record books looking for a connection between cool Aprils and how our summer plays out.

I have found something that I think most of us (unless you like 100s) will like.

April 2013 was the 18th coldest April on record with records dating back to 1898. The average temperature was 2.5 degrees below average!

tease1 How Cold April Could Mean Cool Summer In DFW

This is also the coldest April we have seen since 2007. April 2007 was the 12th coldest April on record with an average temperature of 62.4 degrees.

The Summer of 2007 played out like this…

  • 5th Wettest Summer on record with 16.99″ of rain at DFW!
  • Only 5 days where the temperature reached 100 degrees!

We average 18 days with high temperatures in the 100s each year.

This bodes somewhat well for our summer.

Let’s look at May. The latest climate outlook for May has North Texas seeing cooler than average temperatures.

off15 temp How Cold April Could Mean Cool Summer In DFW

A cool May bodes even better for a cool summer.

To confirm this, I looked at the hottest and coldest Mays on record. I calculated how many 100 degree days we saw for each of those years.

Below are the top 10 hottest Mays on record and the number of 100 degree days we saw that summer.

Highest Average    
Rank Temperature Year   100 Days
1 79.7 1996 13
2 78.5 1998 56
3 78 2006 43
4 77.9 2012 34
5 77.7 1956 48
6 77.6 1962 17
(tie) 77.6 1927 16
8 77.4 1977 25
9 77 2008 30
10 76.9 2010 29

If you were to take the average 100 degree days from the above list it = 31 days.

Below are the coldest Mays on record and the 100 degree days following those Mays.

Lowest Average    
Rank Temperature Year   100 Days
1 66.1 1907 12
2 66.9 1917 15
3 68.5 1931 8
4 68.6 1976 5
5 68.8 1954 52
6 69 1924 17
7 69.5 1982 10
(tie) 69.5 1935 11
9 69.7 1979 7
(tie) 69.7 1946 22
69.7 1903 1

The average number of 100 degree days here is 14.5 days.

This is a clear correlation between a cool May equaling less 100 degree days. It’s not always the case because you can look at the 5th coldest May on record (1954). That year we ended up with 52 days in the 100s. But more likely a cool May leads to less 100 degree days in summer.

I do think May will end up cooler than average. This cold front coming Wednesday night will keep temperatures below average all the way thru the weekend. And then another unseasonably strong cold front is on the way around May 10th.

Stay tuned and thanks for reading my blog update.

Larry Mowry

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