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Rain Chances Later this Week for DFW

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Larry joined the CBS 11 Storm Team in January 2008 from CBS affil...
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What a beautiful day!  Temperatures have warmed into the 70s.  We do have a few clouds streaming in from the west, but otherwise a pleasant evening.

RECORD COLD SNAP COMES TO AN END

The past five mornings have seen something we haven’t seen since 1917.  We have had 5 days in a row in May where temperatures failed to make it to 50 degrees!  We also tied a record last Thursday and set a new record low on Friday and Saturday!

LOW TEMP GRAPH

SATELLITE/RADAR FROM 3PM MONDAY

On the radar, there are a few spotty showers over West Texas down into the Hill Country.  These showers will fizzle as they move NE toward North Texas.  We could squeeze out a few sprinkles south and west of DFW this evening, but otherwise we will just see an increase in cloud cover.

KTVT Street Level

NOT AS COLD TONIGHT

With an increase in some cloud cover this evening, temperatures will stay warmer tonight.

NTX Overnight Lows Manual

WARM TOMORROW

Partly to mostly sunny skies tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 80s!

NTX Tomorrows Highs

STORM CHANCES

Later this week, the weather will become a little unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances starting Thursday into the weekend.

On the upper level wind map, we have two areas of slow-moving low pressure.  One over the SE US which is what brought us the cool weather last week and another Low over California.  The California Low is bringing some much needed rain to areas that were ravaged with fires.

This California Low will slowly move toward the southern Plains this week.  It will lose some of its structure and intensity.  But it will still be strong enough to bring us storm chances.

TX SatRad Master11

WEDNESDAY

Storms will develop along the dryline well west of DFW.  These storms may make a run for far western sections of North Texas (i.e. Breckenridge, Jacksboro, Eastland) Wednesday night.  But they don’t look like they will make it to the Metroplex.  But those storms out west could be severe.

Severe Risk Day 3

STORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY

NTX Rain Chances

THURSDAY – Showers and storms look to develop during the second half of the day into the evening.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe.  Thursday evening into Thursday night looks to be the timeframe where we could see severe weather in North Texas, although, a significant severe weather outbreak doesn’t look likely at this time.  My main concern will be some hail and wind.

NTX Rain Chances1

FRIDAY- More scattered showers and thunderstorms during our Friday.  It doesn’t look like a wash out but scattered rain will be around.  I can’t rule out a few isolated severe storms on Friday, but again, widespread severe weather not expected.

NTX Rain Chances11

SATURDAY - A few left over showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible especially across the southern half of North Texas.

NTX Rain Chances111

RAINFALL PROJECTION

The two main forecast models that forecast out thru the weekend are showing anywhere from .75″ to 1.50″ across North Texas from Wednesday thru Saturday evening.  We could definitely use the rain.

EUROPEAN RAINFALL FORECAST

Euro Futurecast Precip Accum

GFS RAINFALL FORECAST

GFS Futurecast Precip Accum

7-DAY FORECAST