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Wednesday Evening Storm Chance Update for North Texas

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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The timing of storms for our Thursday has shifted a little.  It looks like a cluster of storms will develop over the northern Hill Country up to Abilene during the morning on Thursday.  These storms will move east affecting the southern half of North Texas and possibly us here in the Metroplex.  Rain chances then go down in the evening.

The severe threat looks a little lower with storms developing so early in the morning to our southwest.  I would put a great threat of severe weather for those areas south of Hillsboro down to Austin.  A few isolated severe storms could be possible with some hail and gusty winds.

Rain timing looks to be between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. for metro area.  Longer for areas south and southeast.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE

The red dashed line over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico is the disturbance that will push into Central Texas tomorrow morning and start the thunderstorms.

KTVT Standard

KTVT Standard1

SLIGHT RISK includes most of North Texas, but I have highlighted the area that has a higher risk of severe weather with hail and wind the main threats.

Severe Risk Day 2

RAINFALL

I am concerned that the storms south of DFW will eat up all the moisture and not leave much in the way of rain for us in DFW.  One of my forecast models shows this.

NTX Futurecast Precip Accum RPM

BOTTOM LINE

Thursday will be a messy day with rather disorganized storms throughout Texas.  There won’t be one particular boundary like a front that will initiate thunderstorms.  Instead, they will get going thanks to upper level disturbances.  This makes it more difficult to pinpoint locations of development.  The reason for this is that we can’t get a good sample of what is going on above the ground.  At the ground level we have thousands of data points (weather sensors).  Above ground we have very little data.  Weather balloons, aircraft and even satellites can deliver some data, but it is sparse coverage at best.

Be sure to check with Garry Seith first thing tomorrow morning on CBS 11 NEWS THIS MORNING starting at 430 a.m.

~Larry

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