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Mavericks Draft ’13 : History Shows They Won’t Find An All-Star

By Roy White, 105.3 The Fan
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115945983 8 Mavericks Draft 13 : History Shows They Wont Find An All StarComment Below

The Pacers selected Tyler Hansborough with the 13th pick in the 2009 draft. (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Pacers selected Tyler Hansborough with the 13th pick in the 2009 draft. (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

Mavericks Draft ’13 : History shows they won’t find an All Star

I wanted to take a look back at past years to see what type of player the Mavericks can expect to find if they decide to use their #13 pick in tonight’s NBA draft, and what I found was this: the chances of the Mavericks drafting a high impact player at their draft position are slim to none. However, there is a good chance that the Mavs can draft what I deem a serviceable NBA player.

Here’s the criteria (the player must satisfy one of the three) : they’ve played, on average, over 60 games per year since they were drafted; They’ve averaged 25 or more MPG in their career; or they average double digit points per game in their career. I’ve dubbed these players “serviceable NBA players”.

Why did I choose those parameters? Simple: the longevity filters out players who have had significant injury issues, or players who never quite developed into NBA talent. Having said that, I still wanted to include players that, when healthy, provided their teams with significant minutes. Finally, if you’re scoring 10+ points a game in the NBA, then you likely have a spot in the league. Here’s what I’ve found for picks 10-16 (each draft broken down individually):

2007 DRAFT
– 5 of 7 picks turned into serviceable NBA players. None have made an All Star appearance.
Notable players drafted after 16 : Wilson Chandler (23), Aaron Brooks (26), Tiago Splitter (28), Carl Landry (31), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56)

  • 10 – SAC – Spencer Hawes – 420 GP (72 gms/yr), 24 MPG…..9 pts, 6 reb, 2 asts / game
  • 12 – PHI – Thaddeus Young – 437 GP (75 gms/yr), 29 MPG…..13 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 14 – LAC – Al Thornton – 296 GP (51 gms/yr), 28 MPG…..12 pts, 4 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 15 – DET – Rodney Stuckey – 410 GP (71 gms/yr), 29 MPG…..13 pts, 3 reb, 4 asts / game
  • 16 – WAS – Nick Young – 416 GP (72 gms/yr), 23 MPG…..11 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game

2008 DRAFT
– 6 of 7 picks turn into useable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (Brook Lopez).
Notable players after 16 : Roy Hibbert (17), JaVale McGee (18), Serge Ibaka (24), Darrell Arthur (27), Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), De’Andre Jordan (35), Goran Dragic (45)

  • 10 – NJN – Brook Lopez – 325 GP (68 gms/yr), 33 MPG…..18 pts, 7 reb, 1.5 asts / game
  • 11 – IND – Jerryd Bayless – 309 GP (64 gms/yr), 19 MPG…..8 pts, 2 reb, 3 asts / game
  • 12 – SAC – Jason Thompson – 378 GP (79 gms/yr), 27 MPG…..10 pts, 7 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 13 – POR – Brandon Rush – 291 GP (61 gms/yr), 27 MPG…..9 pts, 3.5 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 15 – PHO – Robin Lopez – 324 GP (67 gms/yr), 17 MPG…..7 pts, 4 reb / game
  • 16 – PHI – Marreese Speights – 344 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG…..8 pts, 4.5 reb / game

2009 DRAFT
– 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable players after 16 : Jrue Holliday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Taj Gibson (26), Marcus Thornton (43)

  • 10 – MIL – Brandon Jennings – 291 GP (76 gms/yr), 35 MPG….17 pts, 3.5 reb, 6 asts / game
  • 12 – CHA – Gerald Henderson – 234 GP (61 gms/yr), 26 MPG….11 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
  • 13 – IND – Tyler Hansborough – 246 GP (65 gms/yr), 20 MPG…..9 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 asts / game
  • 15 – DET – Austin Daye – 237 GP (62 gms/yr), 15 MPG…..6 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast / game

2010 DRAFT
– Just 4 of 7 players turn out to be serviceable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (George).
Notable players after 16 : Eric Bledsoe (18), Jordan Crawford (27), Greivis Vasquez (28), Landry Fields (39), Lance Stephenson (40)

  • 10 – IND – Paul George – 206 GP (73 gms/yr), 30 MPG…..13 pts, 6 reb, 3 asts / game
  • 13 – TOR – Ed Davis – 212 GP (75 gms/yr), 23 MPG…..7 pts, 6 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 14 – HOU – Patrick Peterson – 187 GP (67 gms/yr), 22 MPG…..8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 15 – MIL – Larry Sanders – 183 GP (66 gms/yr), 19 MPG…..6 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game

2011 DRAFT
– 5 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable Players drafted after 16 : Iman Shumpert (17), Kenneth Faried (22), Chandler Parsons (38), Isaiah Thomas (60)

  • 10 – MIL – Jimmer Fredette – 130 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG…..7 pts, 1 reb, 1.5 asts / game
  • 11 – GSW – Klay Thompson – 148 GP (82 gms/yr), 31 MPG…..15 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
  • 12 – UTA – Alec Burks – 123 GP (68 gms/yr), 17 MPG…..7 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 13 – PHO – Markieff Morris – 145 GP (80 gms/yr), 21 MPG…..8 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 15 – IND – Kawhi Leonard – 122 GP (68 gms/yr), 27 MPG…..10 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game
  • 16 – PHI – Nikola Vucevic – 128 GP (71 gms/yr), 26 MPG…..10 pts, 9 reb, 1.5 ast / game

2012 DRAFT
– 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances.
Notable Players drafted after 16 : Tyler Zeller (77), Jae Crowder (34)

  • 10 – NO – Austin Rivers – 61 GP, 23 MPG…..6 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast / game
  • 11 – POR – Meyers Leonard – 69 GP, 18 MPG…..5.5 pts, 4 reb, 0.5 ast / game
  • 14 – MIL – John Henson – 63 GP, 13 MPG…..6 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 ast / game
  • 15 – PHI – Maurice Harkless – 76 GP, 26 MPG…..8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game

SUMMARY
– Of the 42 players selected in this draft range since 2007, 28 (67%) have become “serviceable NBA players”. Here’s how each category broke down – either 60+ gms/yr (27 players – 64%), 25+ MPG (13 players – 31%), or 10+ PPG (12 players, or 29%).
– As a result, you can infer that the Mavericks will likely get a player who will be able to contribute on a nightly basis, but chances are low that said player contributes significant minutes, and even lower that said player becomes a viable scoring option.

Of the 42 players selected in this draft range…

  • Just 2 have made All Star appearances…that’s just 5%. So good luck thinking the Mavs are getting an All Star.
  • Just 3 players (7%) – (Jennings, Brook Lopez, and Klay Thompson) – have averaged 15+ pts/gm in their careers.
  • Just 6 players (14%) – (Lopez, Vucevic, Ed Davis, Paul George, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes) – have averaged 6 rebounds or more in their career.
  • Just 4 players (10%) – (Jennings, George, Lopez, and Klay Thompson) – have averaged more than 30 minutes per game.

Ultimately, history dictates that it’ll be very difficult for Dallas to come up with with a player that’s going to help this thing in the short term. I expect the Mavericks to trade out of the pick, but if they do decide to use it tonight, it’s difficult to imagine that player being a major contributor.

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