Generic Wx Explainer

North Texas is in a mild weather pattern as we kick off what is typically the second hottest month of the year.  You can feel the drier air as light north winds dominate the pattern for the next several days.  Highs today run roughly 7 degrees below the normal high of 94 degrees.  Morning temperatures dipped to within 4 degrees of the standing record officially at DFW.  And more is to come after our mild afternoon.

NTX Todays Highs

Record Morning Temps

Last week’s 100 degree heat was not far off from record levels and now we are facing morning lows that threaten to break records for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The standing record lows along with my forecast lows are plotted below.  If we keep our nighttime skies clear, I think we stand a good chance at breaking the record the next two mornings by a degree.  The latest run of our FutureCast computer model is putting out 63 to 64 degrees officially at DFW for Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

Metro FutureCast Temps NTX Futurecast Temps

Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend with the upper level pattern remaining from the north and a surface front stalled in South Texas and West Texas.  Here’s the state forecast for the next three afternoons.

texas travel texas travel2 texas travel3

As the front to our south washes out by Thursday, southeast winds take over and humidity slowly increases.  The return of humidity will likely take a day or two before it becomes uncomfortable and there’s enough moisture for showers and storms to develop.  However, an upper level disturbance is forecast to move into North Texas Thursday and bring rain chances to our west.  It will combine with energy coming out of the Gulf of Mexico Friday and into the weekend and develop a cut-off low somewhere from Oklahoma into Texas.  What this means is small chances from storms with the heat of the day each afternoon Friday through the weekend.  Right now looking like best chances are Saturday and Sunday.

US Jetstream Pattern US Jetstream Pattern1US Jetstream Pattern