By Jeff Ray

We again expect afternoon storms to crop up in the daytime heating. Today the upper level low is down to our south. With it outside of our area it only creates a slight chance of storms later today for north Texas:

KTVT Street Level

We’ll put the chances at a mere 10%, most of the activity will be west and southwest of the metro area:

NTX Rain Chances

Highs today go right back into the upper 90’s again. The typical high this time of year is 90°, tomorrow it’s 89°. We’ve had above-normal highs every day this month so far save for one (the 2nd; also the last time it rained at DFW).

We await a cold front to bring in the first real wave of Fall weather. There are several up to our north across the central plains right now:

N TX wide Temp Plot

The front just entering northern Oklahoma this morning will actually make it across north Texas tomorrow. It’s not a very strong one however, we are expecting the highs to get back into the mid-90’s. The front should be over us in the morning tomorrow, it’ll produce some cloud cover and a very small shower chance. Winds turn to the northeast.


The front should be to our south by afternoon on Friday; it’ll de-stabilize the atmosphere enough to create some afternoon storms:


The front will cool us down some as we go into the weekend, lows 90’s are expected along with morning lows around 70°.

The storm chance stays small, only around 20%. What is more interesting to watch is the Bay of Campeche over the next 24 hours. It is a likely a tropical storm (it’ll be called Ingrid) will develop just off shore of Mexico. It should drift north   before coming on shore this weekend along the central Mexico coastline around Tampico. That is a somewhat bold prediction when you consider how the tracking models  offer  a wide range of solutions and landfall times:

Tropical Spaghetti Plots

Assuming Ingrid ends up moving a little slower and lands a little closer to the U.S. border then most of the models predict, we should prime the atmosphere enough in the mid-levels to increase our rain chances just after the weekend:

TX SatRad Master11a

There is much in the air so to speak about what happens over the next two days with this system and how it affects us. Right now we’ll be optimistic (but not overly) and put a 20% rain chance in for Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be around 90° both days thanks to the cloud cover.