Heat Stays On, Ingrid Stays South
Of the last 21 days at DFW a full 20 of them logged highs above-normal. This last week was no exception. For this date the average high is in the upper 80’s. Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get:
The immediate and long-range models don’t suggest anything different. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center predicts above normal highs for the eastern 2/3rd’s of the U.S. all the way to the last few days of September:
For Sunday we’ll see a few storms pop up in our southwest corner but for the vast majority of us, another hot and dry day in store for north Texas:
The big weather story of the day is the second hurricane of the season. Hurricane Ingrid ramped up from a Tropical Storm (65mph winds) this morning to a full-fledge Hurricane by 3:00pm. Winds were estimated to be around 80mph at 7:00pm.
The storm is forecast to hit the Mexican coast Monday morning:
This could turn into be a catastrophic flooding event for states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz and the communities along the foothills of Sierra Madre Orientals. Not only will the coastal region around Tampico suffer hurricane winds, the circulation of Ingrid’s remnants will linger over the area and south for most of the week. We could see rainfall amounts top 25″ in some places. I expect nearly a foot of rain could fall by Tuesday evening just to the south of Brownsville around San Fernando.
Will this moisture get to the parched lands of north Texas? It appears the rain chances will only peak at around 20% over the period that Ingrid makes landfall. The upper air pattern takes most of the moisture over Midland and up into the Texas panhandle:
Our rain chances pick up on Monday when a frontal boundary stalls to just to our north and helps trigger afternoon storms. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will be higher thanks to Ingrid so some isolated downpours are possible:
Probably the best chance of rain (and cooler weather) will arrive Friday when another cold front gets close to north Texas. This front will be strong enough to pull up the gulf moisture and bring it into the Missouri Valley:
This might produce the first day in the 80’s we’ve had since mid-August. Right now we’ll put the rain chances at 30%: