100% Rain Chance for DFW, How much rain we get!

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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The rain coming tonight thru the day tomorrow will be a good soaker.  It probably will be the heaviest rain we have seen since January.

Back in January we had a 24-hour period where we saw 3.26″ of rain.  That was January 8th and 9th.

Everything is coming together to give us a heavy rain event maybe as good as what we had in January.

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY

At 3pm the cold front was located over the Panhandle up into Kansas.  This makes it to DFW midday tomorrow.

TX Temp Plot

TROPICAL MOISTURE

There is a lot of tropical moisture streaming into North Texas.

tropiclamoisture 100% Rain Chance for DFW, How much rain we get!

RAIN TIMING

Below is our CBS 11 High Resolution Forecast Model showing the rain.

TXFUTURECAST 100% Rain Chance for DFW, How much rain we get!

RAIN CHANCES TIME LINE

Here’s a look at the rain coverage for North Texas over the next 24 hours.

RAIN CHANCE LINE GRAPH

HOW MUCH RAIN

Most areas will likely see between 1″ and 1.50″ of rain.  But a few locations will see as much as 3″!

Below you will see one forecast model showing rainfall totals across NTX from 1.50″ to 3″

NTX Futurecast Precip Accum

There is a lot of variability when it comes to rainfall totals and it will be dependent on if you are lucky enough to get underneath some of the heavier downpours.  Below is graphic that shows the rainfall forecast from 4 of my most reliable forecast models.  Even they differ on how much rain will fall at DFW.

CompuerModelRainfall

TROPICAL DOWNPOURS

Because of the rich tropical moisture, the storms we see won’t be big lightning producers.  I don’t expect any severe weather warnings with these storms.  Instead, they will be very heavy rain producers.  There could be a few flood advisories and maybe even a flash food warning for some areas due to runoff.

THIS WILL HELP THE DROUGHT… A LITTLE

Here is the current look at the drought across the state.  Areas shaded orange or red are in a drought.  That is about 86% of the state.

drought 100% Rain Chance for DFW, How much rain we get!

HOW MUCH RAIN TO END THE DROUGHT

We would need anywhere from  6″ to 12″ of rain depending on where you live to end the drought.

RainNeeded1 RainNeeded

DFW RAINFALL STATS

So far this month we have seen just a quarter inch of rain.  And for the year we are running a deficit of 6.81″.

rainfall update

SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE STATE

This rain will not only help in North Texas but just about everyone in the state will get beneficial rain.  The Reservoirs need it.  The amount of water in all the lakes in Texas is only at 58% of capacity.  Last year at this time it was 68%.

Lake Capacity Texas

BRING ON THE RAIN

Track the rain here.