By Jeff Ray

We had some storms crop up in the VERY warm afternoon (DFW Hi: 93°!). There were a few warnings issued, some minor storm damage reported in Bosque and Wise counties. A landspout developed near Ray Roberts Lake; fortunately there were no reports of damage:

Gustnado over Ray Roberts

October is usually rather generous with rain across north Texas ( on average our second wettest month). We’ve got about four days of rain ahead of us as a pool of rich tropical moisture sits over the Lone Star state. A very potent upper level low moves in from the Pacific NW into the central plains to help wring the rain out of this humid air:

Heat Wave Central Plains1

Heat Wave Central Plains

This low will bring a cold front into our area late on Tuesday. The best chance for significant rain will fall on Monday and Tuesday ahead of frontal passage. Forecast models continue to predict ample rainfall for our area. Below you can see the GFS shows over 2″ of rain could fall by Monday night at DFW. There is still ANOTHER day of rain after this:

NTX Futurecast Precip 36hr GFS

When the front finally sweeps through very dry air moves in. Once the last of the upper level energy moves over us on Wednesday (producing about a 30% chance of rain) we’ll enjoy excellent fall weather heading into the weekend. On Tuesday afternoon I expect dewpoints to be around 70°; very rare for this time of year to have air this humid in place. The next day it fells more like mid-October:

TX FutureCast Gulf Moisture1

TX FutureCast Gulf Moisture2

The extended show the big rain chances over the next couple of day before we get into great weather for next weekend: