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A Look at Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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Strong to severe storms will be possible in North Texas on Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday Night/Early Thursday morning.

A strong upper level storm is now over Nevada and that will move into the Plains tomorrow into Wednesday.

TX SatRad Master

As this moves east, a cold front will be pushed south into Texas and help be a focus for thunderstorms.

3PM MONDAY FRONTAL POSITION

TX Temp Plot1

Storms will be likely for all areas of North Texas on Wednesday with severe weather possible.  The main severe threats will be large hail and high winds.  But I can’t rule out an isolated tornado threat.  Another big concern on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be localized flooding.  It is possible some areas could see over 3″ of rain, which could cause some problems.

HALLOWEEN FORECAST

The rain looks to be out of here in time for Trick or Treating Thursday evening.  Temperatures will be pleasant in the mid 60s by 7pm.

Halloween2013

DETAILED LOOK AT FORECAST

Storms this evening will be well to our north.  The area shaded in yellow on the maps below represent the areas that are under a slight risk of severe weather.

THIS EVENING / TONIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA

Severe RiskA

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA

Severe RiskB

WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA

Severe RiskC

RAIN TIMELINE

Here is a look at the rain chances at different time frames.

WEDNESDAY MORNING

NTX Rain Chances

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING

NTX Rain Chances1

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NTX Rain Chances11

THURSDAY

NTX Rain Chances111

RAIN CHANCES ON A GRAPH

RAIN CHANCE LINE GRAPH

HOW MUCH RAIN

This could be a heavy rain event for many areas.  Most of my forecast models are indicating heavy rain.  This is why I am a little concerned for some localized flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Model Output of Rainfall Below

MODEL COMPARISON

The area I have outlined in pink is the greatest concern area for localized flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

NT

FORECAST:

TONIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy again, stray shower possible mainly north along the Red River.  Low of 66.  S 10-15 mph

TOMORROW:  Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild.  20% chance of a thunderstorms mainly north of DFW.  High of 81.  S 15-25 mph

WEDNESDAY:  Thunderstorms likely, some severe.  Rain chance at 80%.  Low of 68.  High of 76.

THURSDAY:  Morning showers and thunderstorms, then drying from west to east.  Low of 65.  High of 77.

FRIDAY:  Mostly sunny.  Morning low 52.  High of 78.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny and cooler.  Morning lows around 50.  Highs in the low 70s.

Larry Mowry

LOOPING RADARS HERE

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