A Look at Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday
Strong to severe storms will be possible in North Texas on Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday Night/Early Thursday morning.
A strong upper level storm is now over Nevada and that will move into the Plains tomorrow into Wednesday.
As this moves east, a cold front will be pushed south into Texas and help be a focus for thunderstorms.
3PM MONDAY FRONTAL POSITION
Storms will be likely for all areas of North Texas on Wednesday with severe weather possible. The main severe threats will be large hail and high winds. But I can’t rule out an isolated tornado threat. Another big concern on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be localized flooding. It is possible some areas could see over 3″ of rain, which could cause some problems.
The rain looks to be out of here in time for Trick or Treating Thursday evening. Temperatures will be pleasant in the mid 60s by 7pm.
DETAILED LOOK AT FORECAST
Storms this evening will be well to our north. The area shaded in yellow on the maps below represent the areas that are under a slight risk of severe weather.
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
Here is a look at the rain chances at different time frames.
RAIN CHANCES ON A GRAPH
HOW MUCH RAIN
This could be a heavy rain event for many areas. Most of my forecast models are indicating heavy rain. This is why I am a little concerned for some localized flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Model Output of Rainfall Below
The area I have outlined in pink is the greatest concern area for localized flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
TONIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy again, stray shower possible mainly north along the Red River. Low of 66. S 10-15 mph
TOMORROW: Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild. 20% chance of a thunderstorms mainly north of DFW. High of 81. S 15-25 mph
WEDNESDAY: Thunderstorms likely, some severe. Rain chance at 80%. Low of 68. High of 76.
THURSDAY: Morning showers and thunderstorms, then drying from west to east. Low of 65. High of 77.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Morning low 52. High of 78.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and cooler. Morning lows around 50. Highs in the low 70s.