A Nice Warm Up Ahead…Before Cold Returns
Its what the ice problem needed across north Texas, a stretch of weather above freezing. It slipped above 32°F at the DFW airport on Thursday morning; it’s stayed above freezing since.
As skies clear overnight we’ll have lows drop to the upper 20′s in the outlying areas, just below freezing in the urban areas. The roads are dry enough to not concern us too much about black ice. We’ll be below freezing for about 4-5 hours. Than tomorrow starts a very nice warm up.
You can see how the temperatures climb from Sunday to Thursday. Then another cold arctic air mass arrives bringing rain and storms on Friday, then some sleet on Saturday (and maybe Sunday as well). So enjoy the warm weather while it lasts; highs next weekend will stay in the 30′s.
Of course the big question right now is if we’ll have another ice event similar to the last one. This is a classic set-up (just like last time) for a sleet or ice event in north Texas. First off, you must have the cold air in place. It’ll be just arriving on Friday night:
The storm will be moving into west Texas on Friday night and Saturday, pulling Gulf moisture over the pool of cold air at the surface:
Right now it appears the coldest air stays back in the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. We’ll see; these events are difficult to forecast one day out much less five days. One of our long-range forecast models puts the ice/snow risk to our north and northwest:
Several waves of upper-air energy will move overhead on Saturday and Sunday. This could turn into a sleet event before the dry air takes over. It doesn’t appear the cold air is going to stick around as long as this wave did. We should have highs in the low 50′s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Here’s the extended: