By Jeff Ray

A Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 2pm for the southern half of our viewing area. The watch does NOT include Tarrant or Dallas Counties:


I expect the coverage area of severe weather to be limited ; hail up to golfball-size is possible. Compare the Storm Prediction Center’s risk of large hail (1″ or larger) with the Tornado threat today. The worst of the weather (including a risk of flooding) is east of north Texas:

Severe Risk Day 1 to Day 2Tornado Risk Today

Rain is a big part of the forecast for everyone in north Texas.

NTX Rain Chances11 NTX Rain Chances111

Below you can see how Futurecast keeps it around most of the day. The best coverage will likely be in the middle of the day:

10AM 2pm Rain/Storms Continue

The rain should start to taper off west to east as the day comes to an end and we fall into evening:

7pm Rain/Storms Continue 10PM

Daytime highs in the upper 50’s is a temperature that is normal for early JANUARY not early April.

NTX Tomorrow Highs1

It’ll be teamed with north winds, cloudy skies and wet conditions so it’ll feel even colder than that all day.  Not the best news for the thousands of NASCAR fans gathered in the stands and infield at the Texas Motor Speedway:

NASCAR Duck Commander

Our Final Four visitors have the day off while we await for the championship game tomorrow night here on CBS. Hope everyone brought rain gear and sweaters. Really, it’s usually in the 70’s this time of year!

NCAA Weekend

All this is the fault of an upper-level system that is swinging through the desert southwest and into the central plains. Look at the sequence below and you can see how it brings heavy rains to Texas and the southern states:

500mb7am Rain/Storms Continue 500mb3pm Rain/Storms Continue 500mb3am Rain/Storms Continue 500mb4pm Rain/Storms Continue

Notice that there is rain and storms right back in the forecast for north Texas on Monday as the system pulls into the Ohio valley. It’ll be a little warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid-60’s. It appears right now that the rain chances show up in the second half of the day:

Mon 2p

For those traveling back home tomorrow look out for possible localize flooding in Mississippi and northern Alabama. There is a risk of severe weather in northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolina’s:

US TotalRain ForecastSevere Risk Day 1 to Day 2

The soggy weather in north Texas clears out on Tuesday. It’ll be rather windy (N 15-25) early in the day as skies clear. Highs should still make it into the low 70’s with low humidity. We start a string of 80-degree days that runs to Saturday.

Extended AM

Just beyond the outlook above there is another dramatic turn of the weather ahead. Next Sunday looks stormy with cold air rushing back into north Texas. We could likely see lows in the 30’s by Monday and Tuesday morning. One of our long-range models (the GFS) puts the freezing line at the Red River on the morning of Tuesday, April 15th. The latest freeze on record for DFW is April 13th back in 1997 and 1957.

Lows Tuesday AM