There is a risk of damaging storms this afternoon and early evening. There is even a risk of tornadoes (mostly east of the metro area):

Severe Risk Day 2

It starts to the west and moves east across the afternoon hours:

NTX Rain Chances1 NTX Rain Chances2 NTX Rain Chances3

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes are possible.

Severe Weather Risk

THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface that keeps the daytime heating from producing convective storms) could not break in the afternoon or simply just weaken, limiting the afternoon storm activity. The rain could linger longer into the morning or the clouds stick around and keep us from warming up. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PUT THE SEVERE RISK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. SOME PUT THE HIGHER RISK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

Because the risk of these storms being so powerful it seem prudent to the public safety to go with the near-perfect timing of all the major players (the morning rain leaves, the mid-day sun comes out, the breaking of the cap in early afternoon, the dry line close to the metroplex).

We expect the morning rain to be light. By mid-day there could be some thunderstorms south of the metroplex with some small hail.


Notice at 3pm the forecast model puts the temperature at 81 degrees in Mineral Wells and 73° at DFW.  If the clouds break early enough for the Metroplex to get into the low 80’s the risk of severe weather increases greatly for the DFW area.

Notice that FutureSky Forecast has isolated cells popping up ahead of the dryline. We don’t expect great coverage with these supercells but powerful storms none the less. Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threat from these storms.  Also notice the line of storms lined up further east by mid-afternoon. These could be producing severe weather including tornadoes as it moves across our southeast corner (Navarro to Anderson Counties)

3P 5P

The storm risk moves east of the metro area as we get into the end of the day. Then a cold front arrives from the northwest. We are expecting a fast-moving line of storms ahead of this powerful front; damaging winds will be possible along and northeast of a Gainesville to Dallas line:


What is behind this front is a shocking drop in temperatures. We’ll have some clouds and light rain east of the metroplex in the morning. But temperatures will be dropping across the morning as winds gust up to 35 mph from the north.

mON6 mON11A

I’d like to note that Saturday’s high of 85° made for the fourth-day-in-a-row of 80°-plus weather, the longest stretch so far this year. By tomorrow afternoon it’ll feel like January again (just like last Sunday!)

Ten Day Temps

But an even bigger shock is in store for us on Tuesday morning. The winds won’t be much but the clear skies (perfect conditions to view the lunar eclipse that morning) and light winds will allow the temperatures to get to freezing at least one more time this season. We’ll have a frost in the metroplex but the outlying areas to the north up to the Red River could drop to freezing:

NTX Overnight Lows Manual

The latest freeze on record for DFW is April 13th. If you are like me and have been planting since the last official freeze at DFW (31° on March 5th) you might need to cover those plants! Here is the extended below:

Extended PM

By the way, this VERY cold air that is moving across the central plains into the east coast is producing snow. Heavy amounts in Denver and even some light amounts in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.
US Snow Forecast

Because of CBS coverage of the Masters Golf Tournament we won’t be have an early news show today. Please follow our storm coverage on Twitter and on our website: