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Rain Chances: Small, Temperatures: Tall

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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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Today was the hottest day we’ve had so far in July. Okay, we are only six days into the month but the trend of late (15 of the last 16 days) has been of daytime highs at or BELOW normal. A few of our Weather Watcher Network reported temperatures above that:

Almanac PM WWN Hottest Temps

Highs tomorrow perhaps a degree warmer or two. If we hit 97° it’ll be the hottest day of the year so far:

NTX Tomorrows Highs

Rain chances go small as the temperatures get big. Tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon we could see a few storms move into our southeast corner:

NTX Rain Chances11

Tuesday night and Wednesday we’ll have a stationary front just to our north. This puts rain chances in our forecast across the Red River counties though some of that might get close to the metroplex:

TX FutureCast TX FutureCast1 NTX Rain Chances111

But the story is the heat. In the Extended below the forecast is for a daytime high that is higher than any day we’ve had so far this year:

Extended PM

Upper 90’s are in the forecast but the numbers are all just shy of the 100° mark. We’ve had no triple-digit highs so far but that’s not so unusual. Records go back to 1899 and its happened 50 times (that’s 43% of all the years). Its happened six times in fact just since the year 2000 (counting this year) .

Is the lack of 100° weather  by the first full week of July any indication of what is to come for the rest of summer? Well…not really. Lets look at those 50 occurrences. Here is the full list and the number of 100° days that followed:

Main Chart

Nine times there was only ONE 100° day (or hotter) that came after July 6th. But look at the range. We’ve had NO 100° days (2x) and we’ve had OVER 40 (2x):

Chart2 Chart1

The average is about ten. Typical is about eighteen. About the only conclusion I can make looking at the records is that we have about a 70% chance we’ll end up with fewer than average because of the late start. Some hope for the cooling bills I guess. Really no bull. Here is me sitting on one.  This is where I was perched for my live shot last Thursday from the Mesquite Rodeo. I’m laughing because they are not going to open the gate, otherwise I wouldn’t be sitting there.

Jeff Bull

Join Scott Padgett and gang for your forecast tomorrow morning starting at 4:30am.

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