By Jeff Ray

Daytime highs are heading up before that get way, way down (for July):

Ten Day Temps

We didn’t hit 100° today. We hit 99°. Could you tell the difference ?

AM_Almanac PM

We always use 100° as the benchmark of hot in north Texas. Tomorrow we have a better chance of logging our first one of the year. It’ll likely be even hotter on Monday:

NTX Tomorrows HighsNTX Tomorrow Highs1

A ridge of high pressure is sitting over us, the chances of rain is as close to zero as you can get in the summertime:


But it’s a low pressure system to our north that will grab the weather headlines in the week ahead. It is going to produce a remarkable cool spell by the middle of the week:


The cold front should arrive late Tuesday and then languish as a stalled-out front on Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring some good rain chances to north Texas , there is a chance on Thursday that we get some really BIG rain. Let’s hope so. By Monday we’ll be at the SIXTH driest start to a year on record, the driest start since 1972.

TX FutureCast TX FutureCast1 TX FutureCast3

On Thursday (the 17th) our northern counties could stay in the 70’s all day, something practically unheard of in July. Expect that it happened almost exactly a year ago to the day. On July 15th, 2013 the high at DFW was 74 degrees, about 20 degrees below normal. That’s been the coldest July day in the last 70 years.

A July Day in the 70’s for a high? Let’s put that in perspective. As of today there have been 3,546 July days on the record. Only 26 of them had a daytime high that stayed in the 70’s.  So there is a .0073 chance of that happening on any given July day.

We have 80’s in the forecast for highs W-F at DFW. A July Day in the 80’s. Let’s put that in perspective. Since 2000, we’ve had more NIGHTS in the 80’s than daytime highs in the 80’s:

Halfway Thru Rain Year

Here is the extended forecast. Our first run of 100° weather is a short one with a dramatic reversal.

Extended PM