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By Jeff Ray

Rain chances are too small to mention today (under 10%). There will be plenty of heat along with just a few afternoon clouds:

AM_TODAYS TIMELINE 7a_7p

We are not forecasting a lot of wind and combined with the sunshine we expect high ozone counts by afternoon:

Ozone Action Day AIR POLLUTION WATCH

When we turned the switch on to summer after a cool start to June that switch has stayed on. We had rain over the last two days in the Metroplex but the airport only received a trace. The last measurable rain was 16 days ago on the 13th (.14″ of reported). Today will mark the 18th day in a row of above normal temperatures:

Ten Day Graph JUNE_2016_CALENDAR_TEMPS

Most here in north Texas would agree that once you hit 95° it’s considered a HOT day. We have quickly racked up 20 such days here leading up to now and expect nothing but days hotter than that going on to the 4th. When we compare summers of late you see how 2011, 2010 and 2008 logged more 95° than what is forecasted for this year. All three of those summers ended up on the list of top-ten highest summers on record by average temperature (1980 DFW logged the hottest summer on record by daytime highs).

Days Above 90

When we look at daytime highs at DFW in the 30-day period leading up to July 4th we can see that this will likely be the hottest run-up to the 4th in five years (for 2016 I used the forecast numbers). Back in 2011 we had the hottest summer (by average temperature) on record:

FW_SKYCAST_TEMP_CHANGE

The typical summer-time ridge of high pressure is building back in over Texas. That means “hot and dry” will be the weather story leading up to the 4th:

500mb Energy GFS 500mb Energy GFS2

This is the GFS Model forecast run for the next seven days. It shows NO rain for a large swath of Texas including north Texas:

US Futurecast CBS Total Rain

Here is your Fourth of July weekend forecast. We are forecasting the first 100° day of the year for the Fourth of July though it could easily happen on Saturday or Sunday leading up to that day. Sunday will mark exactly 300 days since the last 100° day recorded at DFW Airport (101° on Sept. 7th 2015):

July 4th Weekend Forecast Full PM

If you are making your plans for the Fourth here is the forecast for that night. CBS11 is part of the Frisco Freedom Fest; there will be an excellent fireworks show following the FC Dallas game at Toyota Stadium. You’ll be able to see the fireworks anywhere near the stadium.

2013_4th-of-July-Fireworks_Forecast  July 4 Night_PM

In the extended it looks like a run of triple-digit highs is in store for us:

INT - Extended AM CSV

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