Tropical Rains in Peak Season

Highs today will be in the low-90’s as clouds build up in the daytime heating. Slow-moving storms will develop, they won’t be as numerous as yesterday but will produce some lighting and gusty winds along with a threat of localized flooding:

AMWknd_2part

High pressure over the Southeast continues to pump deep tropical moisture into Texas. This abundant moisture not only improves the chance for an afternoon storm to develop (compared to most hot August days) but also increases the chances for that storm to produce 1″ to 2″ of rain.

High East

This general flow is taping into the storms created by a tropical disturbance currently just off shore in the Gulf. This low is forecast to slowly drift toward Houston where VERY heavy rain is in the forecast in the days ahead. By mid-week we’ll have to see where Hermine will be positioned and if it will head toward Texas:

Disturbance2 TX Water Vapor Contour2

Will it become a named storm at all? If it does form a closed low will it head into Texas or curve back into Florida? This storm could have a significant impact on somebody’s Labor Day forecast. Most of the hurricane track models agree on the storm getting into the Gulf. We’ll see what happens when it hits the 80°F-plus waters in place there:

Tropical Spaghetti Plots1

Labor Day is close to the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Right now we have three disturbances and one Tropical Storm (Gaston) in the basin. Gaston had 70 mph winds this morning and will likely become a hurricane again this afternoon. The chances are low that any of the other disturbances get strong enough to earn a name.

Tropical Spaghetti Plots

The greatest impact right now from Disturbance #2 (the one that could become Hermine off the west coast of Florida early next week) is heavy rain over the east coast of Florida. The rain will be on & off for the next five days there with as much as 7″-10″ falling in some places:

Tropical Spaghetti Plots3

As we peak into Labor Day we see a dry forecast with highs in the mid-90’s. We’ll have to see what happens in the Gulf before we can be a little more certain of the summer-ending holiday weather:

INT - Extended AM CSV Plus 3

No triple-digit highs in the forecast ahead. DFW typically logs 18 a year with the last one falling in late August. If we don’t reach 100° again  this year at DFW that will make three years in a row we’ve had a below-normal count. It’s been 20 years since that has happened!

100 Days per Year 100 Days per Year2

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