Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

It’s opening weekend for the State Fair of Texas and the first weekend of October looks awesome. A few clouds today but warmer tomorrow with more in clouds and humidity:

2016 state fair 3 panel forecast Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive 2016 state fair 3 panel forecast1 Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

We have an upper-level shortwave moving over us today, it’s bringing a few showers across the Hill country today along with the clouds:

tx today Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

Tomorrow the shortwave will be well east as a weak ridge builds in. Dry weather continues but we’ll up in the upper 80’s by Monday:

tomorrow Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

The next storm system arrives Tuesday to our western counties. A major upper-level low will swing across the Central Plains, pushing a dry line and then a cold front through north Texas. The risk of severe weather along the dryline on Tuesday, then ahead of the front on Wednesday:

tx futurecast1 Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive tx futurecast2 Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

It’ll take another day for the cool weather behind the front to settle into our area. Going into next weekend we’ll have highs in the low 80’s again:

int extended am csv Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

On Thursday morning Tropical Storm Matthew started to quickly intensify. In only about 36 hours time (last night) Matthew became a Category Five hurricane briefly before lowering its winds to a still powerful Category Four today. It is still out in open water in the Caribbean sea well south of Jamaica.

hurr matt Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

Over the next 24 hours Matthew is forecast to change directions from west to northwest as it turns toward the island of Jamaica:

tropical tracker scene master1 Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

The hurricane will threaten Jamaica on Monday and Cuba on Tuesday. It should be in the Bahamas by Wednesday.

tropical long track gfs1 Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive tropical long track gfs Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

By the end of the week Matthew could be sitting just off the east coast of Florida. There is great uncertainty on the track this far out but with a major hurricane so close to the mainland by mid-week all eyes will be on the track. Stay tuned.

tropical long track gfs friday Nice Fall Weather Until the Storms Arrive

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