August Forecast

We are expecting a cooler-than-normal August, perhaps the coolest one since 2004.  Since the last few days of July we’ve enjoyed slightly below normal temperatures at DFW. The typical high of 97° hasn’t been hit since 7/29. Notice the remarkable 81° day last Wednesday when we got some rain. We have more 80° degree days in the forecast for next work week:

ten day graph August Forecast

A daytime high in north Texas ISN’T in the 90’s or triple-digit is a rare thing. Over the last ten years of records at DFW there have only been 19 days under 90° for a high. That works out to a 6% chance. In comparison, there is a 40% any August day at DFW will get to 100° or above.

ten day graph1 August Forecast

What’s going on? Well the weather pattern over the United States has a deep (for this time of year) trough over the Central Plains and Great Lakes. This is keeping the traditional sources of hot & dry August weather at bay. Usually either the Western Ridge or the Bermuda High (or both) is making August our hottest/driest month of the year. But this year is different. Notice the position of the jet stream from this coming Monday to the middle of the month. The ridge tries to take hold by next Wednesday but is again pushed out of Texas by the Central Plains trough:

tx futurecast1 August Forecasttx futurecast2 August Forecasttx futurecast3 August Forecast

What this translates to is an outlook by the Climate Prediction Center for good chances of below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall:

aug monthly outlook precip August Forecastaug monthly outlook precip1 August Forecast

Remember how 2016 started? We shattered the record by almost an entire month for the earliest freeze at DFW ever (Jan. 8th). By the time we got to May 31st we had logged the WARMEST START TO ANY YEAR ON RECORD.

But this summer? So far it’s the 26th warmest summer on record but the 6th WETTEST.

What all this means? Well for different people different things but you can expect lower cooling bills in the month ahead as well as lower water bills. You might consider planting your fall garden a little earlier. And all those kids in football and band practice here in August might have to fight some rain but likely won’t be fighting dangerously hot temperatures. Thanks Mother Nature!

 

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