By Jeff Ray

We had morning lows on Sunday drop down to the 40’s in many areas across north Texas. Then a brisk southeast wind and afternoon sun jumped the temperatures into the low 80’s, the warmest weather in the last ten days.

Cool weather has been the norm here in north Texas this April. Take a look at the average daily highs in April at DFW over the last three years. For 2013, the average is as of yesterday. Back in 2011 it was the 4th warmest April on record:

3d DFW rainfall update

The month ends with warm weather. Highs Monday will get into the upper 80’s!

NTX Tomorrows Highs

It’ll be dry, humid and breezy for the next three days. So May will start warm, highs will be in the low 80’s with some clouds and Wednesday.


Notice the cold front to the north. It sweeps in during the night and brings the warm trend to a chilling pause. As the front charges across the panhandle it could fire up some severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The current thinking is that the storm threat stays just to the west of the metro area:


When the front comes through you’ll notice it. Strong winds could wake you up that night as cold air pours back into north Texas. Look at the afternoon temperatures on Thursday:


Teamed with strong northwest winds at 25-30 mph it’ll be an afternoon and evening that would require a heavy coat. And this is May 2nd! By Friday morning temperatures should get down to record lows, down to around 40° in the metro and upper 30’s in the northern rural areas.

An upper level low will funnel in the cold air, this is a weather pattern that’s been rather common this month:

500mb Energy1

500mb Energy2

The cold conditions of the southern and central plains has greatly reduced severe weather outbreaks so far this Spring. This weekend was the two-year anniversary of the deadly tornado outbreak across Alabama. You might remember that 2011 was the deadliest tornado season in modern recorded history (since 1950).  Compare the number of  tornadoes from Jan. to the end of April over the last three years:

3d Tornado Count

Not only have there been much fewer tornadoes so far this year but they have been much less deadly. In fact, there is no comparison. We lose around 60 people a year to tornadoes. That number reached 550 in 2011, by April already 365 people had died.

3d Tornado Deaths

Back to the forecast, highs next weekend will get into the low 70’s. Below normal for the time of year but very nice weather: