IRVING (105.3 THE FAN) – Did the Titans commit “highway robbery’’ in their trade of the No. 1 overall pick to the Rams?
Not according to the most objective measure, the Trade Value Chart.
The Titans started with the No. 1 selection in the upcoming NFL Draft leveraged it nicely, sacrificing it along with a fourth- and a sixth-round pick to get from the L.A. Rams:
*Two first-round picks (2016 and 2017).
*Two second-round picks (both in 2016).
*Two third-round picks (2016 and 2017).
That is, on the surface, quite a haul. But the Trade Value Chart — created in the early ’90’s by Dallas Cowboys executive Mike McCoy (and since then wrongly credited to Jimmy Johnson, who implemented it) — tells a slightly different story.
There are now more “modernized’’ versions of the Trade Value Chart, and it doesn’t have to be the gospel here. But in the way it assesses “points’ to picks, ’t’s a fine thumbnail guide. (We have to work loosely here with the math because we don’t yet know the value of future picks.)
The Titans get
*2016 15th pick = 1050 points
*2016 43rd pick = 470 points
*2016 45th pick = 450 points
*2016 76th pick = 210 points
*2017 1st round (let’s put it in the middle and assume 15th overall)
*2017 3rd round (middle, assuming 79th overall)
Titans TOTAL = 3,425 points
The Rams get
*2016 1st pick = 3,000 points
*2016 113th pick = 68 points
*2016 177th pick = 21.8 points
Rams TOTAL = 3,089.8 points
There are any number of ways to assess this blockbuster trade. One of them is to note that the Titans get twice as many picks as the Rams, so if the NFL Draft is a dart throw? Tennessee gets more darts. Another take: How much is too much for a franchise QB? (Which is obviously what the Rams believe they’ll get in Carson Wentz or Jared Goff)? And then there is the positioning and needs of the other teams; the Rams may have paid more to be No. 1 because the Browns are at No. 2 and could also be QB-needy.
But the most objective way to measure the “fairness’’ of a trade on paper is by utilizing the Trade Value Chart. And according to the TVC, only 335 points separates this deal … and if the Rams are right in their judgment of their QB at No. 1, those 335 extra points represent a price they will be happy to have paid.
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