DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) — As businesses across North Texas make plans reopen, economic recovery could prove to be slow and possibly even short-lived.
The most optimistic outlook is a “V” shaped recovery where there’s a swift rebound as soon as the shelter-in-place restrictions are lifted.
Other economists fear a “W” shaped recovery where an initial recovery is short-lived and followed by second economic downturn. Economists say a resurgence in the coronavirus in the fall could lead to the second downturn.
However, most economists are now forecasting a “U” shaped recovery for North Texas, where the economy could be at the bottom for a while, but eventually see an upswing.
Comerica Bank Chief Economist Robert Dye said he’s confident the economy will recover but advises people to not be overly optimistic or pessimistic either.
Dye said he believes the COVID-19 hangover could last into 2021 and even part of 2022.
“We are not going to be back next week to where we started from, but we are going to get through this,” he said.
The inevitable change in the economy, however, could put North Texas at an advantage over much of the country, experts say.
SMU economist Bud Weinstein said a year from now, not only could the region’s economy be well on the road to recovery but could be seeing growth.
He said the relatively low number of COVID-19 cases in Texas compared to other parts of the country, along with a strong economy prior to the pandemic, will put North Texas at a distinct advantage.
“Once the virus dissipates we are going to see renewed growth,” he said. “We are going to see a lot more businesses relocating and expanding here from the East Coast and the West Coast… So, while things look pretty gloomy right now, the future for our region is as bright as it’s ever been.”