By Jeff Ray


(CBSDFW.COM) – Severe weather threatens North Texas Sunday evening and overnight. We are expecting two rounds of it, in fact.

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The first arrives as we close the day and get into early evening. This outbreak will occur when a warm front moves up from the south and crosses the Red River into Oklahoma. The main threat with these storms will be large hail (up to 2″ in diameter).

Then there will be a lull in the action for the evening. A cold front is coming in from the west tonight but that won’t be until very late at night.

A narrow band of strong storms is expected to form along the front as it moves in. The first areas to get these storms will be our western counties along and west of Highway 281. These storms have the potential to produce hail and damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes are possible as well.

Sometime after midnight, the DFW Metroplex and our central counties will get these storms moving through. By the time we get to daybreak on Monday the storms will be exiting our eastern counties.

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The main severe risk again is large hail and winds over 60 mph. The tornado risk is small but not zero.

Below is a series of stills based on the GRAF IBM model. This is a forecast model issued by one of our vendors. It follows the current thinking outlined above in terms of timing of the fronts and storms.

Keep in mind that WHERE it shows the storms can only be interpreted in a general sense (think “areas” instead of “counties”).

Scott Padgett and I will be in studio following these storms all night. Please follow us on Twitter and Facebook and if you haven’t downloaded the DFW Weather App onto your smart phone do so now. The app will warn you when a storm or tornado warning is issued for your area (wherever your phone is currently located).

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This could be a big help since it appears that the major threat will occur in the overnight hours when you are going to be asleep.