by Blake Matthews | CBS 11 MeteorologistBy CBSDFW.com Staff

NORTH TEXAS (CBSDFW.COM) — Let’s start this here weather story with a Haiku:

This record warmth
Unusual so deep in winter
Find coats quick

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Speaking for both the year and the weather pattern, it’s out with the old and in with the new. A strong cold front, by far the strongest of the season, is about to knock our socks off. That’s bad news because you’ll need those socks along with heavy coats, mittens, sweaters, scarfs or anything else to keep warm with by Saturday evening and lasting all the way through Monday.

A significant freeze is on the way for all of North Texas by Sunday morning, as overnight lows drop into the low 20s and wind chill values plunge into the single digits and low teens. It will be a stunning reversal from the sweltering weather pattern we’ve had since October.

OK, SO LAY IT ALL OUT FOR ME:

You’ve just lived through the most sweltering December, relatively speaking, ever known here in North Texas. With an average monthly temperature, so far, of 61.2°, it smashes the previous record (54.0°) and it’s not even close. So that makes this strong cold front all the more potent.

Our weather is being dominated by La Nina, colloquially called “La Nada” in weather offices around the country – as in you’re not getting any cold or stormy weather, period. So these mild temperatures are on par with what you’d expect. But the winds of change are about to blow and it could be only the beginning of a much larger pattern shift as we head into January. Translation: more strong cold fronts.

THAT TOLD ME NOTHING. HOW COLD, BLAKE?

In a few short words: the coldest temps of the season by far.

So far we’ve only recorded one freeze at DFW airport (the official recording site) and it was a “balmy” 31°. As of now, we’re forecasting lows at DFW around 25° (maybe lower!) – and that’s in the city. Outlying areas, especially to the north and west may get closer to 20° – maybe even some upper-teens in some spots.

The wind is going to be blowing, too, which is going to push those wind-chill values into the single digits and low teens around the area making it all the worse.

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While this technically won’t be a hard freeze by definition, it’ll certainly be cold enough to freeze up backflow preventers, kill plants and be dangerous to pets.

WOW! SO WHEN DOES ALL THIS ARRIVE?

The models have been speeding up the timing of the front, now slated to come blasting through here on Saturday afternoon. That means we start the day in the 60s and we end up in the 40s by the late afternoon. The real bitter cold sets in early Sunday morning. That’s when we could see those low 20s around the area and low wind chill values. Even though the sun will be shining in all its brilliance, it’s going to be a cold day Sunday with highs only reaching those low 40s.

GREAT! WHEN DOES IT LEAVE?

Another widespread freeze is expected Monday morning, too, with temperatures once again expected into the mid and upper 20s area wide, even inside 635 and 820 loops. Given the pattern is really progressive, meaning its fast, the cold should be in and out pretty quick with temps warming into the low 50s Monday afternoon and then low 60s by Tuesday and near 70 by Wednesday!

WHATEVER. SO, WHAT HAPPENED TO THIS “SNOW” WE HEARD ABOUT? YOU PROMISED!

First, I never promised. Not a single time. Nope. Not once.

There’s a saying in the weather biz: you live by the models, you die by the models. You’re right, we did briefly mention on Monday the possibility of snow moving into North Texas but we always cautioned by saying that it was subject to change and that it likely would. Well, it did. It appears the atmosphere will dry out too quickly before the air gets cold enough to snow. Believe me, I wanted it as bad as you. Snow is magical – unless you’re from Buffalo I guess.

There were several model runs in a row, even by the European model, that were suggesting a disturbance would lag far enough behind in the deeper cold that would allow it to snow here. It showed it on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. However, as the timing got closer, the models got a better handle on the atmosphere and did away with it. Easy come, easy go.

Don’t worry, there’s still plenty of winter left to go for more snow chances down the road. Keep in mind the mega-snow/ice storm of last year didn’t occur until February—one of the coldest months historically in Texas.

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Don’t fret none y’all – at least not yet.

CBSDFW.com Staff