Windy and Warm, but How about some Rain!

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
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WINDY AND WARM… BUT HOW ABOUT SOME RAIN CHANCES…

Winds have really increased today thanks to a surface area of low pressure that has developed in the Central Plains near the Rockies.  The development of this low is a response to the large upper level trough that is sitting over the western third of the country.  When ever you see an upper level trough like this, you can be sure a surface low will form on the lee side of the Rockies.

 

hd tx satrad master11 Windy and Warm, but How about some Rain!

 

 

The pressure different between that low and the surface high sitting over the eastern third of the country is relatively tight so that is why the winds have been strong today.  Expect those winds to stay strong tomorrow as well.  Gusts will be up to 35 mph out of the south and southeast.

 

GULF MOISTURE RETURNS… SMALL RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING…

These strong SE winds have been bringing Gulf Moisture back to North Texas.  Dew points have climbed into the low 60s this afternoon and dewpoints will continue to increase tonight and tomorrow.  This increase in moisture and strong south winds also helps create a morning cloud deck.  We saw that a little bit this morning and we will see it more so tomorrow.  In fact, there will be mostly cloudy skies to start our Friday and likely some light rain showers streaming thru the area for the morning commute.  It won’t be a heavy rain, but maybe enough to use your windshield wipers if you get underneath one of these light showers Friday morning.

 

HEAVY RAIN IN WEST TEXAS…

This large upper level trough in the west coast will try to move into the central part of the country.  There is a large disagreement in the forecast models as to how far east this upper level trough makes it.  The GFS model is most aggressive with bringing this trough close enough to North Texas to bring us rain Saturday night and Sunday.  In fact, the GFS if it were to be correct, would mean a heavy soaking of rain just about all day Sunday.  Sounds good right!  But all the other forecast models show very little rain making it here to Dallas/Fort Worth.  These models keep all the rain out in West Texas and bring virtually none toward North Texas.  This obviously poses a huge forecasting challenge.  What model do you believe?  I am going to keep rain chances in the forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth starting Saturday night thru Sunday night.  But it really appears that the heaviest rain will be to our west.  Below is a graphic showing estimated rainfall totals for parts of west Texas.

 

hd ntxwide rainfall totals forecast1 Windy and Warm, but How about some Rain!

 

Now remember, if the GFS were to be correct we could end up in that 1” to 3” rainfall range on Sunday.  Or if the other models are correct we could end up with nothing on Sunday.  Stay tuned…

 

HERE IS THE 7-DAY FORECAST…

 

Larry Mowry

CBS 11 Chief Meteorologist

lrmowry@ktvt.com

http://twitter.com/cbs11larry

http://www.facebook.com/CBS11Weather

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