Heavy rain has been falling in our western counties for much of the day. Some the rain amounts are impressive: 1.5” in Breckenridge, an 1” in Granbury. We’ve watched the line of heavy rain slowly head east ahead of a cold front. The storms inside the line are moving from south to north at 20-30mph. The rain has reached into downtown Fort Worth, within miles of the baseball stadium. I’m still forecasting mostly dry weather for most of the game with the rain chances increasing as we get into the late innings. It’s a close call. Outflow is producing a surface wind out of the northwest just along the metro area and dropped temperatues into the low 70’s, its 72° at DFW yet 82° at Love Field. Gusty SE winds have ruled the day, gusts just over 30mph were reported at most of the sites across north Texas. These winds should stay a little gusty (just over 20mph) for most of the night.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
We are expecting the line to continue its slow advancement east into the metroplex overnight. The intensity should decrease overnight. The short-range forecast models are very bullish on if the line ever really sets up over the metro. Trending would suggest the models are not handling the advancement of this line very well so we’ll keep with the idea that rain spreads into the metroplex overnight and hangs around into Sunday morning. Cloudy skies, a steady SE wind and warm temperatures with lows around 70 degrees.
SUNDAY LOOKING VERY WET
All indications are for a big rain for tomorrow. Areas along and west of the 35E corridor will get the most rain, counties west of the metroplex even more. It’ll come in a couple of waves through the day with the best rains coming toward the end of it and into the night. I’m not very optimistic about the ballgame tomorrow night, there is a good chance for a rain out. Storms with sometimes heavy rain are in the forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night, rain amounts could close in on 2” in some areas inside Dallas and Tarrant counties. Given the low stages of all creeks, rivers and lakes anything worst than street flooding in the low spots seems unlikely. We are not expecting any severe weather from these storms either. We’ll have to watch for training storms (several storms moving over the same place like cars in a train) to gauge the flooding threat through the day. There is a threat given the duration of the rain event. Highs tomorrow will stay in the 70’s where there is steady rain; Fort Worth, Denton and to the west. It’ll get in the low 80’s elsewhere. The wind will still be out of the southeast tomorrow and rather gusty. Huge rain are expected to total up to our west, 1″-2″ rains are expected here:
MONDAY RAINS AS WELL
I don’t believe the entire system will have cleared our area by Monday. We’ll keep a 40% chance of rain with areas east and northeast of the metro being the most likely locations. Winds will turn to the northwest early in the day and taper off the rain from west to east. Highs will again barely reach into the low 80’s with many along I-35W and to the west staying in the 70’s all day.
BACK TO DRY
It appears the ridge builds right back in. A weak cold front is forecasted to come through on Wednesday but right now it doesn’t look like a rain maker. Highs will stay in the mid-80’s all the way to the weekend. Next weekend is looking dry.