The run of weather since Wednesday’s soaking rain has been nothing short of spectacular. Just think of Saturday night at the ballgame- clear skies, temperatures in the 70’s, low humidity.
Sunday was no exception, a cool morning, blue skies, a nice breeze and highs in the upper 80’s. Yet we are past the mid-point of October now, highs should be in the upper 70’s.
The length of night surpasses our time under the sun, simple geometry promises weather like today is destined to take its leave. It will do so quickly on this round, the first shot of fall is now 24 hours away.
MONDAY: Clouds P.M., Windy High: 90, Winds SW 15-25
MONDAY NIGHT: 20% Storm Chance, Windy. Low: 52, Winds NW 15-20
TUESDAY: Partly Cloudy, Windy, High 68, Winds NW 15-25, Gusts to 40mph
BUT FIRST ONE DAY EVEN WARMER
Monday should start in the mid-60’s. Sunshine early on combined with a brisk SSW wind will get us quickly into the 80’s by lunchtime, around 90° by mid-afternoon.
Gusty winds and dry conditions always make us scan the horizon for smoke in this year of great drought. As the day wears on keep an eye also to the northwest sky, clouds will be moving in.
Sometime in the early evening, around nightfall the brisk southwest winds will turn to the northwest with vigor. It will sweep away the end of 90° weather in north Texas for a while, perhaps even for the season.
RAIN CHANCES ARE SMALL, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SMALLER
While the front has significant temperature contract and lift it lacks significant moisture to work with. We are expecting a line of storms to move through north Texas with this frontal passage but coverage will likely be limited to our north and northeast counties.
The Storm Predication does not put the risk at zero but the potential for damaging winds and hail is small, around 5% (the shaded area) north and northeast of the metroplex.
GET YOUR SWEATER AND JACKETS OUT OF STORAGE FOR TUESDAY
You are going to hear the wind through the night heading into Tuesday morning, it’ll likely be rattling your blinds.
Tuesday morning expect the temperatures in the low 50’s with a cutting northwest wind blowing 15- 20mph, gusting around 25mph. I dare say this will require two layers, certainly one to keep the wind from reaching your core. Highs on Tuesday will likely only get into the upper 60’s, there is some suggestion in the computer modeling it might be the mid-60’s.
That’s with a strong wind mind you so that’s heavy jacket weather all day long. This will not feel familiar to any of us, the last time we had a high peak only in the 60’s was 168 days ago in the early days of May.
The 71 days of 100 degree weather might have boiled away that memory for a summer. It’ll all come flooding back Tuesday afternoon on that gusty northwest wind.
FIRE DANGER, FROST FEAR
With such strong winds and low humidity a Fire Watch is in effect for Tuesday in our eastern half. This Fire Watch does not include the metro area.
The drought has made us uneasy in windy days, one only has to remember the carnage in Bastrop county (the Labor Day Weekend fire is the most destructive single fire in Texas history and has its own Wikipedia page now) .
Those winds will start to lay down on Wednesday, going light by early Thursday morning. Under mostly clear skies the temperatures are going to fall, down into the low 40’s in the urban areas and into the mid-30’s in the northern counties.
If you go by the history books, the growing season should have another 30 days left in it. This looks like merely a brush with mortality for some of the summer plants; a more lethal blow will come later as with every late fall in north Texas. Until then, here’s to squeezing out a few more tomatoes from the garden