STORM WATCH:  A Day of Showers & Storms

While all of North Texas is under a Slight Risk for severe storms through the entire day, the main event will be a line of storms that moves across North Texas during the afternoon and early evening hours.  The storms that develop will be along a cold front to our west.  Some of the storms or storm segments will become strong to severe with the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  Here’s a rundown of the day…

  1. Morning commute:  isolated showers & t-showers (20 percent) for Metroplex coming from a small upper level disturbance (meteorologists call it a short wave) pivoting through over the dry line & cold front.  The main storm line stays north and west of Metroplex.
  1. Midday Hours:  Scattered showers and storms (30-40 percent) possible across Metroplex and much of North Texas with the exiting short wave.  As the day progresses, the large upper level low begins to push northeast from New Mexico.  This will push the cold front and a surface low across North Texas during the afternoon hours.  Storms will develop and strengthen along the cold front, but will be positioned west.
  2. Afternoon 3PM to 7PM:  the main event.  The storm line will enhance and should develop into a well-pronounced line as the cold front trudges eastward.  Can’t really call it a squall line because it will not be moving fast and it will be broader than a squall line.  Strong to severe segments are expected along the line with large hail and damaging winds.  Almost the entire line should be producing LOTS of cloud-to-ground lightning.  And a fourth factor to the storm line:  locally heavy rainfall with spot flash flooding possible.  Much of the line will be capable of heavy rainfall even if it’s not technically severe.  Storms will push into East Texas during the evening hours.

Today is a very interesting set up because we’ve already seen it twice before this season.  Storms fire to our west and hang back until the upper low moves eastward to bring the activity here.  While there is no cap over most of North Texas, abundant clouds will help to combat instability by limiting daytime heating.