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Ragweed is Up! Ah-Choo! Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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POLLEN COUNT

Today’s pollen count is again pretty rough for those who suffer from Ragweed.  Today’s Ragweed count of 403 is the highest of the year so far.  Ragweed is in the air until the first freeze.  For a look at the average first freeze here in North Texas check out this previous blog post.

pollen count new5 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

WINDY TUESDAY WITH A FIRE THREAT…

Temperatures have warmed into the low 90s today with gusty south winds up to 35 mph at times.  There is still a fire weather concern thru the rest of the day as any fire that starts would spread quickly thanks to those gusty south winds and relatively dry vegetation.  Here is a graphic put together by the National Weather Service Fort Worth office highlighting those areas where winds will be strong and relative humidities will be lowest.

image full1 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

A COUPLE OF DRY SEPTEMBERS…

We could definitely use some rain.  Meteorologist Jeff Jamison put this graphic together showing rainfall for the past two Septembers.  This September as featured only .22″ of rain so far at DFW.  This September has been just about as dry as last September.  Here’s a comparison of the two.  Take note though, that September of 2010 and September of 2009 were two of the wettest Septembers on record.

september comparison Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

WHEN RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE…

Hurricane Miriam in the Eastern Pacific along with an upper level low over Utah will help bring rain chances to North Texas.  A piece of energy from Miriam will break off and head toward Texas.  The upper level low will also move to the Central Plains.  This will give us the chance of rain starting Friday with Saturday looking to be the day with the greatest chance of rain.  The location of the greatest rain chances is still unclear.  It really depends on where the energy ends up.  Some of the models are favoring Central and South Texas as the best place to see rainfall.  This would take us out of the good rain chances.  Some models do push some rain into North Texas, but they still aren’t as aggressive as those that show rain to our south.  So although I have a 40% rain chance in for Saturday, don’t get too excited just yet for a big rainfall event.  It is something we will have to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Here is a look at where the upper level low is and where Hurricane Miriam is located this afternoon.

tx satrad master113 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

This is how the disturbances will look as we head into Saturday.

tx satrad master11a1 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

RAIN CHANCES…

So with the favored area for rain being to our south, this is the way I have rain chances setting up for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

FRIDAY’S RAIN CHANCES

ntx rain chances6 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

SATURDAY’S RAIN CHANCES

ntx rain chances12 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

SUNDAY’S RAIN CHANCES

ntx rain chances111 Ragweed is Up!  Ah Choo!  Rain Chances are Looking Up Too for North Texas.

FORECAST:

TONIGHT: Mostly clear, warm and breezy.  Low of 72.  S 10-20 mph

TOMORROW: Partly cloudy in the morning than mostly sunny, warm and breezy.  High of 92.  S 15-25 mph

THURSDAY:  Partly sunny, warm.  Low of 72.  High of 91.  S 10-20 mph

FRIDAY:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy.  20% Chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Low of 72.  High of 88.  SE 5-10 mph

SATURDAY:  Mostly cloudy.  40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Low of 66.  High of 84.  NE 5-10 mph

SUNDAY:  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.  20% rain chance mainly in the morning.  Low of 66.  High of 85.