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What I’m seeing that might signal snow flakes for North Texas

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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Thursday Night on CBS 11 News at 10pm, I mentioned the possibilities of light snow.  Here is what the very latest models are showing which would lead to that possibility.

The NAM is a model that updates every 6 hours.  The model shows us what it thinks the future will be like in the atmosphere.  What is catching my eye is an upper level disturbance coming across North Texas after the cold front blows thru on Sunday.

Below is a map which shows areas of precipitation in green and the lines represent 500mb thicknesses.  The thing to look at is the blue dashed line labeled 540.  This blue line is one marker I look for to represent a cutoff area from where it is raining to where it is snowing.  This is not cut and dry as there are other variables involved, but it is an indicator.

Monday_6am_NAM

So what is to note here is the little bit of green showing up north of the blue dashed 540 line.  If precip were to fall in this area it would likely fall as light snow.

I also want to show you the upper level disturbance that is coming Monday morning.  I’ll show these on the news often.  I’ll make it a little cleaner by drawing red dashed lines over the Satellite image.  Below is a 500 mb chart.  Basically this is a 2D slice of the atmosphere at a specific pressure level.

500mb_Mon_6am_NAM

This is a little wider view, but note Texas at the bottom center of the image.  The blob of purple moving across Oklahoma and North Texas is an upper level disturbance.  Basically the model shows us where the air is moving upward.  This is the area where clouds and precipitation would form.

So does this mean snow for us?

Well not so fast.  The other variable to look at is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.  Most of the atmosphere will be dry as the cold air behind our cold front which comes thru on Sunday will be very dry.

It is definitely something I will be following over the next few days.  And be sure to watch CBS 11 News for the very latest updates.

Larry

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