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The Look and Feel of Winter for North Texas

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Plenty of clouds in our skies today due to an active storm track to our south.  The jet stream pattern is split with the southern branch of over South Texas and the northern branch to our north.  Relatively weak energy is running along the southern track, but it’s enough to stream clouds through our skies today, tonight and tomorrow.  The clouds will keep our temperatures running about 10 degrees below the average high of 56 degrees for the next three days.

TX Temp Plot

The clouds are running high in spots with the ceiling roughly 20,000 feet high, but in other spots the ceiling is down to 1,300 feet.  All in all, we are shooting for cloudy skies with the areas of high thin clouds allowing filtered sunshine through during the day.  Winds will be light from the north all day.

Skycast Today

With the southern track remaining active, our focus shifts to an upper level low off the coast of California.  The low is presently cut off from the main northern track, but will get picked up by the southern jet stream and driven toward Texas over the next 2 days.  The energy will begin to arrive after midnight on Thursday night.

Upper level System

It looks like the core of the circulation will track to our north, but most of the precipitation will be occurring to the south of North Texas initially on Friday morning.  Then the precipitation field will move up toward the Metroplex and into eastern parts of North Texas by the afternoon and evening hours Friday.  Below shows our latest run of our FutureSky Forecast for Friday morning and Saturday morning.  For both morning, it keeps temperatures above the freezing mark.  But, our latest thinking is that we’ll likely have temperatures closer to the freezing mark with a small chance of mixed snow and rain for southern parts of North Texas on Friday.  And a small chance of mixed sleet and rain Saturday morning from the Metroplex southward and eastward.

TX FutureCast

Saturday Morning FutureSky Forecast

We know the precipitation will trend on the light side and won’t be overly impressive, but the temperature call will depend on the timing of clouds and how much we’ll cool off at night.  Below is how we think the morning low temperatures will trend.

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