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Storm Chances for the Weekend and Winter Returns Next Week

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT

After a foggy start to our Wednesday, sunshine broke out and temperatures warmed into the 70s!  There will be more patchy fog overnight.

SMALL RAIN CHANCE TOMORROW

A cold front will move into the area tomorrow afternoon.  There will be a small chance of a shower or a thunderstorm along and behind the front during the afternoon tomorrow.  Rain chances are low at 20%, but the favored area for any rain would be North and East of Dallas.  Temperatures will still be warm tomorrow with highs again in the mid 70s.

Skycast 3Parts_NEW

Rain chances for tomorrow.

NTX Rain Chances11

COOLER FOR FRIDAY

Behind our cold front tomorrow it will turn cooler.  We will start Friday morning with temperatures in the 40s and gusty north winds.  Highs on Friday will be cool in the mid 60s, but it will be mostly sunny.

NORTHEAST BLIZZARD

The same disturbance that brought parts of Texas rain this morning will merge with another disturbance moving across the northern Plains to create a blizzard for the Northeast Friday into Saturday.

Here’s the way the upper level pattern will come together.

KTVT Street Level

And here are the snow totals expected for the Northeast and Boston!

Snow Accumulations

More on the potential HISTORIC SNOW STORM FOR BOSTON from WBZ the CBS affiliate in Boston.

WEEKEND STORM CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS

A strong upper level system bring thunderstorm chances to the area.  On Saturday we will see cloudy skies, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving from south to north on strong southerly winds.  Saturday night into Sunday morning is the timeframe where the greatest coverage of storms will occur and when the strongest storms will be possible for the DFW area.  These storms will develop along a Pacific cold front.  Given the time of day (overnight hours), the severe threat may be limited, but we will still have to watch for potential severe weather Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Rain should clear by mid morning on Sunday and temperatures will warm to near 70 Sunday afternoon.

WINTER’S RETURNS!

Those who asked whether winter was over, I made a point to say definitely not.  In fact at the start of the month I said watch out around the 13th thru 18th of February.  We will see a cold shot of air come into the area on Tuesday of next week.  This combined with an upper level disturbance will lead to at least a cold rain.  And if the air is cold enough we would have to watch for the possibility of wintry weather.  Temperatures will only be in the 40s if it is a cold rain on Tuesday.  It would only be in the 30s on Tuesday if we had some wintry weather.

Here is a look at the European forecast model.  Areas behind the darkest dashed blue line are areas where temperatures are cold enough to support snow or other winter precipitation Tuesday evening.

Tuesday6pmEuropean

The European also shows light snow accumulations for parts of North Texas.  (CLICK ON THE MAP TO MAKE IT BIGGER)

European_snow

The GFS Forecast Model is not as aggressive with the cold air.  That would mean just a cold rain for us and snow back in the Panhandle and Oklahoma.

6pmTuesdayGFS

And you can see where the GFS puts the snow Tuesday evening.  (CLICK ON THE MAP TO MAKE IT BIGGER)

snow_GFS

There is definitely no guarantee that we will see snow next week.  But it will definitely be colder and feel more like winter.

I wanted to give everyone a longer explanation of what may happen next week here on the CBS 11 STORM TEAM BLOG.  Stay tuned.

And oh by the way…  more cold air is expected next weekend.  The long range forecast models are hinting at the possibility of merging cold air with upper level disturbances again next Sunday.  Still a long ways off, but with the pattern switching to more of a cold spell for us it is certainly a possibility.  Winter is back!