First, there’s no joking about our gorgeous weather day on this April Fool’s Day and return to work/school from the Easter holiday weekend.  The mercury will push close to 80 degrees with mainly sunny skies until clouds build late in the afternoon or early evening hours.

Warm Monday NTX Futurecast Temps

Storm Chances Return This Evening

A cold front will press southward from the Central Plains and arrive during the evening hours.  The front will interact with the dry line along with upper level support to produce strong to severe storms that will push into northwestern parts of North Texas late this evening.  The storms will weaken as the track east through North Texas, but will likely hold together to bring rain chances to the rest of North Texas through the overnight hours.  As detailed below, the storms may still be severe as they arrive in the northwest with large hail and damaging winds.

Severe Risk

The Main Event:  Locally Heavy Rainfall

While there’s a severe storm threat this evening, most of North Texas will dodge the severe weather.  This means the copious rainfall in the forecast is our big weather story.  An upper level low (or storm system) coming in from California will track across Oklahoma Tuesday and Wednesday.  It will strengthen a surface low pressure system that will track through Hill Country to our south.  The two tracks will put heavy rain potential over all of North Texas, but may favor the Red River and the southern parts of North Texas.

Rain Potential

The storm total amounts from storms tonight through Thursday morning are over 2 inches for most of North Texas with locally heavier amounts especially west and north.

Expected Rainfall This Week

Rain Chances Graph

Work Week Ends Well

The pair of low pressure systems will finally track to our east on Thursday.  Rain chances may linger into the early morning hours, but right now it looks like activity will likely end well before we all get up for work.  Thursday may still run cool, but it will be a drying out day for us with ample sunshine breaking out.  And it will set a dry trend through the weekend ahead.  Rain chances look to stay north of us Saturday and Sunday with a storm system in the Central and Northern Plains.  But, winds will pick up a bit on Saturday with the warmth as the system tracks into the Great Lakes.