By Jeff Ray

Yesterday it hit 101° officially at DFW. That was the fifth day in a row of the big July heat, the biggest heat wave of the year so far. Today that heat wave ends:


The forecast high for today is 85°, that will likely happen in late morning. I expect outflow boundaries and then rain to drop us in the 70’s by afternoon.

This event is triggered by an upper level low coming in from the east. Yesterday it was over Kentucky creating severe weather. Later tonight it’ll be over the Red River:

300mb Energy GFS Ridge

A system like this can bring a long lasting heavy rain in spots. Some of our forecast models are predicting the biggest two-day rain in the metro area since early January:

300mb Energy GFS Ridge2

I expect the heaviest rain to occur when the low is right overhead later tonight. Overnight into Monday morning we could have some localized flooding. Look at the heavy rain predicted for the middle of the night:

NTX FutureCast 12kmA

This will go a long way to help alleviate the drought and low lake levels.

As the low pressure moves to our west it’ll take the soaking rain and widespread rain with it. Most of that 40% rain chance for Monday is in the morning. By afternoon the chances lessen.

We’ll keep cooler temperatures and rainfall chances in the forecast however all the way until Thursday. Then it is a return to the more typical July weather for next weekend: hot and dry.