By Jeff Ray

Its 15 days till the Fall Equinox and there is no sign that the summer heat wants to take its leave. As in the last several days, late-afternoon storms popped up around north Texas. An outflow boundary from earlier storms went through Waco and produced winds around 45mph. Another one moved up from the south into the metro area.  We’ll continue to watch isolated storms move across our southern counties until mid-evening:

NTX Rain Chances1111

For most, its was another hot and dry day, it hit 100° at Love Field and 99° at DFW. Tomorrow appears to offer nothing different:

NTX Tomorrows Highs

I’m not expecting much if any storm activity tomorrow afternoon, drier air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is moving diminish the chances to 5% or below. Hot is the trend of late. Expect for one day (last Monday that had a wide-spread rain) highs have been well above normal (it should be in the low 90’s this time of year):


The upper air pattern continues to show a large ridge of high pressure dominating the central and southern plains. The long-range forecast models keeps this ridge around. Look at the upper-air pattern by the end of the work week. The jet stream is still well to the north with no deep trough swinging towards us from the northwest. This is what we look for to deliver our big shot of cool weather and break the back of summer heat.

500mb Energy EURO1

This is the Climate Predication Center’s outlook for the days leading up to Fall. It shows above normal temperatures dominating the United States:

6 to 10 day temps

This time of year the Atlantic hurricane season can bring tropical rains into the northern edge of the Gulf Coastal plains. However its been a near historical slow season so far this year in the Atlantic. Since 1967 only three years went past August without a hurricane to form. So far this season there’s been none; in fact if we get to 8am Wednesday we’ll break a modern-day record (the “satellite era” in hurricane tracking started in 1967) for the latest start. That said, there is chance Gabrielle might redevelop; it could threaten Bermuda:


There is a Cape Verde storm developing. Looking at ocean temperatures off the coast of Africa I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes Hurricane Humberto:


For  north Texas the A/C units will continue to hum deep into September. Here is the outlook for this week. On Friday the “normal” high dips below 90° for the first time since the first week of June. Highs instead will be in the mid-to-upper 90’s:


By the way, that rain last Monday did start the ragweed season. If you suffer from that particular pollen you might have noticed the high count last Wednesday. It’s come down since then but the count today is still considered moderate: