Flash Flood Concern and Severe Weather Threat for North Texas
It will be a rainy Wednesday for much of the area with some areas seeing very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for a portion of North Texas. The counties highlighted in green below are under the Flash Flood Watch from 7am Wed thru 7am Thu.
A big upper level low will be moving out of the mountain west into the Plains tonight into tomorrow.
There is tropical moisture streaming into North Texas from Tropical Storm Raymond which is off the west coast of Mexico. This moisture combined with a surge in Gulf Moisture will lead to a high amount of water vapor in the air over North Texas. An unusually high amount of moisture is in the air for late October. This combined with the upper level disturbance and a cold front drawing near will lead to heavy downpours in the thunderstorms.
Here is where the cold front is located as of 3pm Tuesday.
The actually cold front won’t arrive until Thursday morning, but the upper level energy will be arriving tomorrow which will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms thru much of the day.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Parts of North Texas are under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather.
The main threat will be…
1. Localized Flooding
2. Damaging Winds 60+ mph
3. Large Hail
I can’t completely rule out a tornado threat tomorrow. There will be a lot of wind shear in the low levels of the atmosphere which will be conducive to get storms to spin, but the strength of the updrafts of the storms will not be terribly high. If the updraft speed were to intensify due to more instability aloft, the tornado threat might increase.
TONIGHT – A few spotty showers will be possible and even a rumble of thunder. Best rain chance is NW of DFW.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON – Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some may be severe. Very heavy rain possible.
TOMORROW NIGHT – Showers and thunderstorms continue for especially for areas from Dallas to the east. Localized flooding will become a big concern as the heavy rain continues over night.
THURSDAY MORNING – Rain will still linger for areas south and east of DFW, but it will dry from west to east as we go into the afternoon. It will be windy and mild on Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low 80s.
TRICK OR TREAT FORECAST – Dry weather for Thursday evening. It will start out mild, but temps will cool fast once the sun goes down.