Flash Flood Concern and Severe Weather Threat for North Texas

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
Severe RiskC_1
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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It will be a rainy Wednesday for much of the area with some areas seeing very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for a portion of North Texas.  The counties highlighted in green below are under the Flash Flood Watch from 7am Wed thru 7am Thu.

GOTHAM KTVT Standard

Here is a look at an estimate of the areas that might see the heaviest rain.  As with most rain events, not everyone will see the amount of rain shown.  Rainfall amounts will vary over short distances.  NTX Heavy Rain Threat

STORMY SETUP

A big upper level low will be moving out of the mountain west into the Plains tonight into tomorrow.

TX SatRad Master

There is tropical moisture streaming into North Texas from Tropical Storm Raymond which is off the west coast of Mexico.  This moisture combined with a surge in Gulf Moisture will lead to a high amount of water vapor in the air over North Texas.  An unusually high amount of moisture is in the air for late October.  This combined with the upper level disturbance and a cold front drawing near will lead to heavy downpours in the thunderstorms.

Here is where the cold front is located as of 3pm Tuesday.

TX Temp Plot1

The actually cold front won’t arrive until Thursday morning, but the upper level energy will be arriving tomorrow which will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms thru much of the day.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

Parts of North Texas are under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather.

Severe RiskC_1

The main threat will be…

1. Localized Flooding

2. Damaging Winds 60+ mph

3.  Large Hail

I can’t completely rule out a tornado threat tomorrow.  There will be a lot of wind shear in the low levels of the atmosphere which will be conducive to get storms to spin, but the strength of the updrafts of the storms will not be terribly high.  If the updraft speed were to intensify due to more instability aloft, the tornado threat might increase.

RAIN CHANCES

TONIGHT – A few spotty showers will be possible and even a rumble of thunder.  Best rain chance is NW of DFW.

TOMORROW MORNING – Cloudy, breezy, mild with scattered rain and storms favoring the western half of North Texas.NTX Rain Chances

TOMORROW AFTERNOON – Numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Some may be severe.  Very heavy rain possible.

NTX Rain Chances1

TOMORROW NIGHT – Showers and thunderstorms continue for especially for areas from Dallas to the east.  Localized flooding will become a big concern as the heavy rain continues over night.

NTX Rain Chances11

THURSDAY MORNING – Rain will still linger for areas south and east of DFW, but it will dry from west to east as we go into the afternoon.  It will be windy and mild on Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low 80s.

NTX Rain Chances111

TRICK OR TREAT FORECAST – Dry weather for Thursday evening.  It will start out mild, but temps will cool fast once the sun goes down.

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LOOPING RADARS

LARRY MOWRY