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Near Record Warmth & Then The Temps Tumble

(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Scott Padgett
Scott joined the CBS 11 Storm Team in September 2013 from sunny Mi...
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The calendar reads December 4th but the temps will warm to temps we normally see in Mid October. Our normal high during this time of the year should warm to 60° but take a look at the forecast today.

Record high 2

Temperatures will warm well above average and even “flirt” with record warmth today but don’t get used to this nice treat. The cold front that will take away your happy thoughts and your outdoor lunches is already moving through NW Oklahoma. As of 9AM temps behind that front are much colder than how we started the day here in North Texas. The front will move through NTX in the early evening hours but the coldest air lags behind the initial frontal passage. I don’t expect any precip with the initial frontal passage but as the day progresses Thursday we will see our precip start.

Temp Plot

Now the question you all are asking is just how much precip will we see and exactly what kind of precip can we expect through the day on Thursday and into Friday. First we need to start with the temperature change Thursday. Today, near record warm and then look at how the temperatures tumble behind the front and how this cold air sticks around into next week.

FW_SKYCAST_TEMP_CHANGE

This will be the coldest stretch of air that we have seen since the first week of February 2011! You all remember the Superbowl that year? Ugh. So, be prepared to bundle up for 6 days in a row.

Now back to the front and what to expect. One thing that is certain it is going to be cold!

WHAT TO EXPECTWinter Storm Watch

With the cold air in place then the question is just how cold will the atmosphere be when we have the rain starting and continuing Thursday into Friday? The Winter Storm Watch includes the Metroplex and a large part of NTX. The FutureSky forecast model puts some freezing rain the NW of the Metroplex starting on Thursday AM and then spreading east by the Noon hour. I think any rain that is falling across NTX will slowly start to switch over to a rain/freezing rain mix in the late afternoon hours. Then overnight is where the forecast gets really interesting and frankly difficult again to forecast. My best thinking right now is that bridges and overpasses may start to get slick NW-SE through early Thursday Night. In the early hours on Friday from near Midnight-about 2AM we are going to see temperatures within a degree of freezing. With that in mind we have a better chance of accumulating Ice across the Metroplex and on some of the roadways. We need to factor in the ground temperature also into our road conditions but right now there is the chance of slick roads. As our Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry has been mentioning the POTENTIAL is there for a winter weather event to happen.   By the afternoon hours on Friday the precip will have ended but the cold air sticks around.

NTX FutureCast1 NTX FutureCast2 NTX FutureCast3 NTX FutureCast4 NTX FutureCast5 NTX FutureCast6

Remember that even though the last freezing rain potential didn’t really develop due to a warm air tongue above the surface that doesn’t mean the same thing is going to happen again this time. The border of a cold rain and freezing rain all depends on a degree and also if that warm layer sets up above the surface layer providing just enough warmth to keep us all rain. Looking at the temps though this airmass is colder than our previous one during the last freezing rain threat. This leads me to believe that we will see a better chance of freezing rain but I still don’t have 100% confidence in this solution. Here is a breakdown of what we could see all based on temps.

NTX Rain Chances11abc

So while you can read above it is good to mention that with the colder airmass we could see temps dip to near 26°-29° which will be completely different for NTX and travel. If those temps do pan out then we could see your backyard and a lot covered in Ice. On top of that there is the potential of Possible Power Outages. The forecast is coming into a bit more agreement but still it is too far out to determine the exact type of precipitation. There is another chance of a winter mix then through the weekend on Saturday into Sunday. This won’t be a large accumulating event but anything on top of ice (if we do see the freezing rain) won’t be great.

What is impressive is the overnight lows on Saturday to Sunday AM. Temps in the 20s and some forecast models don’t even warm the temp on Sunday out of the 20s. Either way today is the last day of this nice weather before the bottom drops out and you are going to be shivering.

Extended AM

Bundle up, find the coffee and stay tuned.

Scott